1、The Americas Argentina's debt Let's not make a deal Argentina may spurn a chance to settle with its creditors 美洲阿根廷债务别签协议啦阿根廷或将还债机会弃如敝履
WHEN Argentina defaulted on its debt for the second time in 13 years last July, the government blamed a pesky clause in its contracts with bondholders. 去年七月，阿根廷发生了十三年来的第二次债务违约，而政府却将这次违约归咎于与债权人签订的合同中的某项麻烦条款。
The so-called Rights Upon Future Offers (RUFO) clause was set to expire on December 31st,in theory opening the way to a settlement with bondholders who had refused Argentina's earlier offers of partial payment. 由于之前债权人拒绝阿根廷部分偿还，这项本应于12月31日到期的未来发行权利（RUFO）条款理论上可以解决与债权人之间的债务问题。
A deal would make it easier to borrow dollars, which the country badly needs to pay for imports. 这项协议可以为阿根廷借入美元提供更多便利，有了美元，阿根廷就可以解决进口商品所使用货币的燃眉之急。
But the president, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, may spurn the opportunity. 不过，克里斯蒂娜?费尔南德斯?基什内尔总统却有可能将这一机会弃如敝履。
After its previous default (in 2001) Argentina offered RUFO as a way to entice bond holders to swap the old debt for new bonds worth much less than the original ones. 上次（2001年）债务违约后，阿根廷通过RUFO 怂恿债券持有人进行债务掉期，也就是说用原先价格较低的旧债券交换价格较高的新债券。
The clause says that any future deal offered to some bondholders would be extended to all of them. 这一条款规定，合同签署后，政府和部分债券持有人达成的协议将适用于全体债券持有人。
In 2012 a court in New York ruled that Argentina would have to pay in full the small minority of bondholders who refused the debt swap. 2012年，纽约一家法院判定阿根廷政府应向拒绝债务掉期的少数债券持有人一次付清所有债务。
These are mostly American hedge funds, which bought the bonds at a fraction of their face value. 后者主要是美国对冲基金，它们当初就是以远远低于面值的价格买入了阿根廷债券。
Argentina argued that complying with the court order would trigger billions in payments to all holders of bonds issued under New York law, and so chose to default. 阿根廷称，根据纽约法律，按法庭裁决行事将导致对债券持有人支付高达数十亿的费用，于是便选择了违约。
Since the court's ruling, its foreign-exchange reserves have dwindled to 30 billion, less than needed to pay for six months' imports. 法院作出判决后，阿根廷外汇储备已缩减至300亿美元，甚至不足以支付六个月的商品进口。
Low commodity prices mean that few dollars are flowing in. 较低物价意味着美元流入会更少。
The government has responded by further restricting imports, which has led to shortages of supplies to factories and of some consumer goods. 由于限制进口导致工厂供货和部分日用品出现了短缺，政府已对进一步限制进口做出了回应。
That is one reason why the economy is expected to shrink by around 1% in 2015. 这便是阿根廷经济增速预计将在2015年下跌1个百分点的原因之一。
Debt payments during the year will siphon off some 40% of international reserves. 全年的债务将造成外汇储备流失40%。In December Argentina tried to reduce that drain by offering holders of bonds due for repayment new securities that mature in 2024. 十二月时，阿根廷曾试图给债券持有人提供2024年到期的新债券，以避免本国外汇储备消耗过快。
The gambit failed miserably:just 4% of creditors volunteered to exchange their 2015 bonds. 这项策略后以惨败告终:只有4%的债权人自愿用2015年债券进行兑换。
Things are so desperate that the government will soon make an attractive offer to holdout bondholders, some observers believe. 一些观察家认为，当前情况万分危急，政府不久就会制定出富有吸引力的政策来维系人心。
The expiration of the RUFO clause makes the cost bearable; the government would not have to make the same offer to the other bondholders. 这次RUFO条款期满后，违约成本尚可担负；但政府今后不会再和其他债券持有人签署同样的协议了。But that is a minority view. 不过，这只是小部分人的看法。
The real obstacles to paying off the holdouts have always been political rather than contractual, many think. 许多人认为，一直以来，政府无力清偿债务的真正原因都不是合同问题，而是各种政治方面的因素。
Ms Fernandez and her advisers demonised them as vultures and blamed them for many of Argentina's woes. 在费尔南德斯总
统及其幕僚那里，债券持有人遭到了妖魔化—这群秃鹫俨然成了阿根廷诸多灾难的罪魁祸首。
To pay them now would be awkward, and the economic gains might be modest. 现在就给他们还债听起来甚是荒唐，经济也可能只是适度增长。
Luis Secco of Perspectivas, a consulting firm, argues that turmoil in Venezuela, Russia and other emerging markets will make investors hesitant to lend to Argentina. 咨询公司Perspectivas 的Luis Secco 认为，委内瑞拉、俄罗斯以及其他新兴市场的混乱局面将使投资者对于收购阿根廷债券犹豫不决。
Even if the government reaches an agreement with creditors, it won't rain dollars, he says. 即使政府同债权人达成了协议，天上也不会掉美元，他这样说。
Besides, ask sceptics, why should Ms Fernandez strike a bargain that would bring political benefits mainly to her successor? 此外，怀疑人士还提出了一个问题：为什么费尔南德斯总统会签署一份政治利益主要荫泽后任的协议呢？
She will stand down as president after elections next October;none of the prospective candidates so far has her backing. 过了明年十月，她就要从总统任上退休了；这些候选人里并无她所支持的对象。
The easiest course of action would be to hand off the debt fiasco to the next president—and let the economy pay the price. 最简单的做法就绕过债务泥潭，让下一任总统收拾烂摊子—代价就让经济来付吧。译者：王卓
2、Britain The elderly and the state Golden oldies The government makes rich pensioners richer still 英国政府与老人老人的黄金时代政府让原本富有的退休老人越来越富有
BRITAIN'S pensioners are a cosseted lot. 英国的退休老人可谓是集万千宠爱于一身。
Since 2011 their state pensions have been protected by the triple lock, which ensures they rise along with prices, earnings or 2.5%, whichever is higher. 从2011年开始，国家养老金就受到三重保护，保证养老金随物价、收益上涨或者二者之中最高者的2.5%的利率上涨。
Perks for the old such as free TV licences and bus passes and an annual winter handout to help with heating have all survived austerity. 给老人们的其他福利，比如免费电视许可、巴士通行证以及每年发放的保暖健康手册在财政紧缩的当下统统保留了下来。
Government bonds paying well above the market rate of interest have just been made available exclusively to those aged 65 and over. 领先市场利率的养老金债券在不久前也是仅仅提供给65岁以上的人群。
Is all this generosity justified? 所有的这些福利都是公平合理的吗？
Pensioners are poorer than working-age people—almost all have incomes below the national average. 退休老人的收入低于正在工作的人们—大多数老人只能拿到低于国家平均工资水平的退休金。
But they are treated better by the state. 但是国家更优待他们。
For any given private income, retirees'equivalised disposable income—that is, money available to spend after the deduction of taxes and payment of benefits, 对于任何有固定收入的个人，退休人员的可支配收入—在交税和支付福利后
and adjusted to account for household size—is higher than that of younger people. 并按照家庭收入比例作出调整的可支配金额—比年轻人的收入要高得多。
The state pension, currently worth about 6,000 (around 9,000) a year, accounts for much of the discrepancy. 国家养老金，目前每人每年为6000英镑（约9000美元），是造成这些差异的主要原因。
It is often seen as a reward for past contributions, not as a pure benefit, but this is dubious: 退休金被看做是对过去对社会贡献的回报，而不是单纯的福利，但是这似乎很矛盾：
pensions are funded by today's taxpayers. Even if pensions are counted as private income, the richest pensioners still do well from the state. 养老金是由现在的纳税人缴纳的。即使养老金被视作个人收入，最富裕的退休老人依然从国家得到了许多好处。
They do not pay national insurance (a tax levied only on earned income) on their private pensions,leaving more money for cruises and conservatories. 他们不需要为自己的养老金支付国民保险（仅针对自营收入征收的税种），这样就有了更多的钱去旅游和听音乐会。
On January 27th, in an interview with the Daily Telegraph newspaper, 1月27日，在接受《每日电讯报》的采访时，David Cameron promised that a future Conservative government would remove housing benefit from 18-to 21-year-oldsa group 卡梅伦承诺未来的保守党政府将会减掉18至20岁群体的住房补贴，
that suffers from higher-than-average unemployment and already receives less generous welfare payments. 这个群体有着高于平均水平的失业率并且得到较少的福利补贴。
Meanwhile, the silver-haired who will benefit most from the government's new bonds are those who can afford to stash away the full 20,000 limit 同时，那些从政府的新债券中获利颇多的老人，能够存下2万英镑限额之内的金额
more than a year's income for most pensioners. 这比大多数老人年退休金还要多。
It's a good time to be rich and old. 这是老年人致富的黄金时代。译者：胡雅琳校对：陈思思
3、Britain Household wealth The balance-sheet boom Household wealth, and debt, is forecast to swell in 2015 英国家庭财富资产负债表的繁荣预计2015年家庭财富和债务将膨胀
WITH the excesses of Christmas nearly over,Britons are planning their budgets for the new year. 随着圣诞节购物狂潮接近尾声，英国人开始进行新一年的规划预算。
Their decisions will be crucial for the economy. 他们的决定对经济状况至关重要。
After paying down debts to repair their balance-sheets in the years after the financial crisis, consumers are spending again. 金融危机之后几年，在偿还完资产负债表的债务后，消费者们又开始消费了。
Yet wealth, like wages, remains lower than in 2007. 然而家庭财富和工资一样，仍然低于2007年。
A recovery in riches is an essential component of official forecasts for further growth. 财富复苏是官方预测未来发展的一个必要因素。
When the financial crisis hit, wealth immediately suffered (unlike real wages, which hardly budged in 2008 but have fallen every year since). 当金融危机袭来时，财富首当其冲遭受损害（不像实际的工资，2008年勉强回升但从那以后逐年下降）。
Household net worth—ie, assets minus debts—plummeted by 12% in 2008, driven by a 13% fall in housing wealth, which makes up just under half of all household assets. 家庭净值，也就是资产减去债务，在2008年骤然下降了12%，这是受了约占家庭资产一半的房屋财富下降13%的影响。
The hole is not yet filled: adjusting for inflation, housing wealth—168,000 (261,000) per household—remains 13% below its pre-crisis peak. 这个窟窿至今还没有被填上：通货膨胀调整、家庭财富(每户168，000英镑（261，000）美元)保持在比危机前峰值低13%的水平。
Financial wealth, which includes investments in stocks and shares, has fared slightly better, but is still down 4% on 2007. 包括股票投资在内的金融财富稍有起色，但仍比2007年低7%。
As a result, households reduced their debts from 2008. 其结果就是，自2008年以来，家庭减少了债务。
Savings jumped from around 7% of income pre-crisis to 11% by 2010. 危机前约占收入7%的储蓄在2010年达到了11%。By 2013 the average household had 62,000 worth of debt, down 16% in real terms on 2007. 2013年，每家约有62，000镑的债务，扣除物价因素比2007年降低了16%。
Largely as a result of this frugality, household net worth, which averaged 320,000 in 2013, has recovered about half its losses from the crisis. 在这种俭省的影响下，2013年平均为320，000英镑的家庭净值已挽回了危机中一半的损失。
That suggests that balance-sheets are not fully patched up. 这表明资产负债表并没有完全被修补好。
Yet consumers have been spending more; 然而消费者已经开始增加支出了，
since 2013 saving has hovered around its pre-crisis level. 自2013年，储蓄就在危机前水平左右徘徊。
And forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), Britain's fiscal watchdog, see it falling further still, 英国财政监督部门预算责任办公室(OBR)预测，储蓄将会进一步下降，
from 6.6% of income in 2014 to 5.4% in 2015 and then 4.8% by 2019. 从2014年收入的6.6%下降到2015年的5.4%，然后到2019年的4.8%。
Several factors lie behind the reversal. 这个逆转背后有几个因素。
Better employment prospects mean workers are less in need of rainy-day funds. 更好的就业前景意味着工人们没那么需要雨天基金了。
They might also expect wage growth and want to borrow against that future income. 他们也可以期望涨工资和预支工资。But the most significant factor is recent house-price growth, which boosts homeowners' wealth without them needing to save. 但最重要的一个因素就是最近的房价增长，这使房主的财富增长，不需要存钱了。
House prices are up 17.5% on average since 2012 (30% in London) and the OBR reckons a further rise of 7.4% is on the cards in 2015. 自2012年以来，房价平均上涨了17.5%（伦敦上涨了30%）。OBR预测2015年可能会进一步上涨7.4%。
It was a housing boom that allowed the aggregate debt-to-income ratio to reach a record high of close to 170% before the crisis. 正是房屋市场的繁荣让整体上的债务收入比达到了历史新高，约是危机前的170%。
The OBR now forecasts another balance-sheet boom, with debt surpassing its pre-crisis high in 2017 and reaching 184% of income by 2020. OBR预测将有新一轮资产负债表繁荣，债务将在2017年超过危机前最高水平，在2020年达到收入的184%。
This is troubling. 这很棘手。
If puffed-up house prices prove temporary—as in 2007—high debt could leave households vulnerable and harm the financial system. 如果和2007年一样膨胀的房价只是暂时的，高额债务可能让家庭财富不堪一击并损害到财政系统。Housing is illiquid, meaning that in a crisis fire-sales can cause prices to fall rapidly. 住房是不动产，意味着在危机大甩卖中，房价可能骤跌。
Even at current levels—146% of income—the Bank of England rightly frets about household debt, 即使在现在水平—收入的146%，英国央行担忧家庭债务也无可厚非，
and in October limited the number of high-risk mortgages banks can issue (the market has cooled slightly since). 在10月份，央行限制了能提供高风险抵押贷款的银行数（自那以后市场就稍微冷却了）。
The bank's concern makes the OBR's forecast look either wrong or terrifying. 央行的担忧使得OBR的预测看起来要么错了，要么令人惊恐。
In addition, saving is lower than the figures suggest, according to a recent working paper by John Ralfe, a pensions consultant, and Bernard Casey of Warwick University. 另外，根据养老金顾问约翰?拉尔夫和华威大学的伯纳德?卡西的一篇工作论文所说，实际储蓄比数据显示的要低。
The (recently revised) statistics fail to count pension payouts as running down savings. （最近修订的）数据没有将养老金支出当作储蓄流失算进去。
Adjust for this and the savings rate fell to -0.2% in 2013 and will become more sharply negative if the OBR forecast is borne out. 对此进行调整后，2013年的储蓄率下降到了-0.2%，如果OBR的预测成真，那这一负数将更大。
So much for an end to Christmas excess. 这就是本次圣诞购物狂欢的大体状况。译者：王颖校对：毛慧
4、Leaders Greece and the euro Crisis revisited 社论精粹希腊和欧元危机重现
The euro is still vulnerable, and Greece is not the only problem 欧元仍然脆弱不堪，而希腊不是其中唯一的问题。
IT WAS almost exactly five years ago that the euro crisis erupted, starting in Greece. 距上一次由希腊引爆的欧债危机已经过去整整五年了。
Investors who had complacently let all euro-zone countries borrow at uniformly low levels abruptly woke up to the riskiness of an incompetent government borrowing money in a currency which it could not depreciate. 投资者曾经无所顾忌地以统一的低利率借钱给欧元区国家，现在却猛然醒悟，认识到一个无能的政府正在以不会贬值的货币不断地借钱。
There is thus a dismal symmetry in seeing the euro crisis flare up again in the place where it began. 欧元危机从当年开始的国家重新蔓延，不得不说是一次悲催的重蹈覆辙。
The proximate cause of the latest outbreak of nerves was the decision by the Greek government, now headed by the generally competent Antonis Samaras, to advance the presidential election to later this month. 导致投资者精神突然紧张的直接原因
是希腊政府的决定。现任希腊领导人Antonis Samaras相对还比较有能力，他将在本月晚些时候提前进行总统选举。The presidency is largely ceremonial, but if Mr Samaras cannot win enough votes in parliament for his candidate, Stavros Dimas, a general election will follow. 本次选举基本上是仪式性的，但如果Samaras不能在议会为其接班人Stavros Dimas 赢得足够多的选票，接下来还会进行一次普选。
Polls suggest the winner would be Syriza, a populist party led by Alexis Tsipras. 民意调查显示，由Alexis Tsipras 领导的民粹主义政党左翼联盟将会赢得普选。
Although Mr Tsipras professes that he does not want to leave the euro, he is making promises to voters on public spending and taxes that may make it hard for Greece to stay. Hence the markets' sudden pessimism. 尽管Tsipras表示他不会支持希腊脱离欧元区，但他在公开场合向选民做出的关于公共支出和税收的承诺会令希腊很难留在欧元区。因此市场突然悲观情绪弥漫。
As it happens, there is a good chance that Mr Dimas, a former EU commissioner, will win the presidential vote at the end of this month (see article). 刚巧，对于前欧盟委员Dimas来说是在本月底赢得总统选举的好机会。
But the latest Aegean tragicomedy is a timely reminder both of how unreformed the euro zone still is and of the dangers lurking in its politics. 但是，最近发生在这个爱琴海国家的悲喜剧在不断提醒人们，欧元区的改革是多么的止步不前，且其政治中隐藏了多少危机。
It is true that, ever since the pledge by the European Central Bank's president, Mario Draghi in July 2012 to do whatever it takes to save the euro, fears that the single currency might break up have dissipated. 现实是，自从2012年7月欧洲央行主席Mario Draghi发誓要不惜一切代价拯救欧元之后，人们对于单一货币可能会崩溃的担忧消除了。
Much has been done to repair the euro's architecture, ranging from the establishment of a bail-out fund to the start of a banking union. 为了修复欧元的组织结构人们做了很多工作，从建立应急储备基金到开始统一银行业。
And economic growth across the euro zone is slowly returning, however anaemically, even to Greece and other bailed-out countries. 欧元区国家的经济，即使是希腊和其他获得援助的国家，也在缓慢增长。
But is that good enough? 但是这就够了么？
Even if the immediate threat of break-up has receded, the longer-term threat to the single currency has, if anything, increased. 即使当下分崩离析的危险暂时解除了，欧元这一单一货币的长期危险反而增加了。
The euro zone seems to be trapped in a cycle of slow growth, high unemployment and dangerously low inflation. 欧元区似乎被困在缓慢增长、高失业率和极其危险的低通胀怪圈里。
Mr Draghi would like to respond to this with full-blown quantitative easing, but he is running into fierce opposition from German and other like-minded ECB council members. Draghi希望能通过全面的量化宽松对这一困境做出反应。但他的主张遭到了德国和其他持有相似观点的欧洲央行成员的激烈反对。
Fiscal expansion is similarly blocked by Germany's unyielding insistence on strict budgetary discipline. 同样，德国坚持严格的预算控制不仅毫无成效也阻碍了财政扩张。
And forcing structural reforms through the two sickliest core euro countries, Italy and France, remains an agonisingly slow business. 另外，强迫两个欧洲最疲弱的核心国家—意大利和法国进行结构改革，同样也进展缓慢。
Japan is reckoned to have had two lost decades; but in the past 20 years it grew by almost 0.9% a year. 日本被认为已经经历了失去的二十年，但是在过去的20年中，日本基本保持了0.9%的年增长率。
The euro zone, whose economy has not grown since the crisis, is showing no sign of dragging itself out of its slump. 欧元区的经济自从危机之后就没有增长，且没有任何迹象表明其有能力拜托这一困局。
And Japan's political set-up is far more manageable than Europe's. 而且日本的政治体系也比欧洲更易管控。
It is a single political entity with a cohesive society; 这是一个拥有单一政治实体的有凝聚力的社会；
the euro zone consists of 18 separate countries, each with a different political landscape. 而欧元区有18个国家，每个都有不同的政治面貌。
It is hard to imagine it living through a decade even more dismal than Japan's without some political upheaval. 很难想象如果没有一场政治巨变，欧元区能撑过一个比日本更悲催的十年。
Greece is hardly alone in having angry voters. 希腊不是唯一一个有着愤怒选民的国家。
Portugal and Spain both have elections next year, in which parties that are fiercely against excessive austerity are likely to do well. 葡萄牙和西班牙明年都将举行选举，那些反对过度节俭政策的政党们更有可能胜出。
In Italy three of the four biggest parties, Forza Italia, the Northern League and Beppe Grillo's Five Star movement, are turning against euro membership. 意大利四大政党中的三个：意大利前进党、北方联盟和Beppe Grillo领导的五星运动党，都反对意大利继续成为欧盟成员国。
France's anti-European National Front continues to climb in the opinion polls. Even Germany has a rising populist party that is against the euro. 法国民意调查显示，反欧盟的国民阵线的支持率继续攀升。即便是在德国，也有一个反欧盟的民粹主义政党正在崛起。
It's the politics, stupid 这是愚蠢的政治
Indeed, the political risks to the euro may be greater now than they were at the height of the euro crisis in 2011-12. 确实，欧元的政治危机可能比2011-12年欧债危机顶峰时期更加危险。
What was striking then was that large majorities of ordinary voters preferred to stick with the single currency despite the austerity imposed by the conditions of their bail-outs,because they feared that any alternative would be even more painful. 令人惊讶的是，尽管当时由于紧急援助而使得人们不得不节衣缩食，绝大多数普通选民仍宁愿维持单一货币政策，因为他们担心任何改变会变得更糟。
Now that the economies of Europe seem a little more stable, the risks of walking away from the single currency may also seem smaller. 现在，欧洲经济似乎变得稍微稳定了些，放弃单一欧元的风险也变得更小了。
Alexis de Tocqueville once observed that the most dangerous moment for a bad government was when it began to reform. Alexis de Tocqueville曾经做过观察，他认为一个失败政治最危险的时刻是在其正准备开始改革的时候。
Unless it can find some way to boost growth soon, the euro zone could yet bear out his dictum. 除非它能很快找到刺激增长的方法，欧元区可能仍需为其坚持的政策提供证明。译者:邓小雪
5、Leaders World economy Past and future tense The world economy in 2015 will carry troubling echoes of the late 1990s 社论精粹世界经济过去和未来时世界经济在2015年将出现20世纪90年代晚期令人烦恼的相似困境
A FINANCIAL crash in Russia; falling oil prices and a strong dollar; 俄罗斯发生了金融危机；油价和强势美元下跌；
a new gold rush in Silicon Valley and a resurgent American economy; 硅谷出现了新的淘金热，并且美国实现经济复苏；weakness in Germany and Japan; tumbling currencies in emerging markets from Brazil to Indonesia; an embattled Democrat in the White House. 德国和日本则经济疲软；从巴西到印度尼西亚的新兴市场货币呈动荡；民主党在白宫四面楚歌。
Is that a forecast of the world in 2015 or a portrait of the late 1990s? 那是对2015年世界的预测或上世纪90年代末的景象描绘？
Recent economic history has been so dominated by the credit crunch of 2008-09 that it is easy to forget what happened in the decades before. 近期的经济已经由2008-09年的信贷紧缩所主导，很容易忘记在十年前所发生的事情。
But looking back 15 years or so is instructive—in terms of both what to do and what to avoid. 但回过头来看15年前的经济会发现有所启发—反观两者可以知道该做之事以及应避免什么问题。
Then, as now, the United States was in the vanguard of a disruptive digital revolution. 当时和现在一样，美国当年是颠覆性的数字革命的先锋。
The advent of the internet spawned a burst of innovation and euphoria about America's prospects. 互联网的出现催生了一阵对美国的前景创新和兴高采烈的乐观情绪。
By 1999 GDP was rising by more than 4% a year, almost twice the rich-country average. 到1999年为止，美国国内生产总值每年增长率超过4％，几乎两倍于富裕国家的平均水平。
Unemployment fell to 4%, a 30-year low. 美国失业率下降至4％，为30年最低点。
Foreign investors piled in, boosting both the dollar and share prices. 外国投资者主要集中于提升美元和股票价格。
The S&P 500 index rose to almost 30 times earnings; tech stocks went wild. 标准普尔500指数升至市盈率的近30倍；科技
股疯狂飙升。
The optimism in America stood in stark contrast to gloom elsewhere, as it does today. Japan's economy had slipped into deflation in 1997. 正如现今一样，在美国的乐观情绪和其他地方的悲观状态形成鲜明对比。日本经济已经在1997年陷入通货紧缩。
Germany was the sick man of Europe, its firms held back by rigid labour markets and other high costs. 德国是那时的欧洲病夫，德国公司由劳动力市场僵化以及其他高成本阻碍了经济。
Emerging markets, having soared ahead, were in crisis: 已经提前高速发展的新兴市场也陷入危机：
between 1997 and 1999 countries from Thailand to Brazil saw their currencies crash as foreign capital fled and dollar-denominated debts proved unpayable. 1997年至1999年之间，从泰国到巴西等国家货币出现崩溃，并伴随着外资外泄，而且以美元计价的债务被证明是无法偿还的。
Eventually, America ran into trouble too. 最终，美国也遇到了麻烦。
The tech-stock bubble burst in early 2000, prompting a broader share price slump. 早在2000年科技股泡沫破灭，促使更广泛的股价暴跌。
Business investment, particularly in technology, sank; and as share prices fell, consumers cut back. 商业投资，尤其是在技术方面的投资也在下降；而且随着股票价格下跌，消费者也在减少。
By early 2001 America, along with most of the rich world, had slipped into recession, albeit a mild one. 到2001年初，美国与大多数发达国家一样，已经陷入经济衰退，尽管是温和的下降。
America the powerful 壮哉美国
Inevitably the parallels are not perfect. 不可避免的相似之处并不全然完美。
The biggest difference is China, a bit-part player in 1999 and now the world's second-biggest economy, contributing disproportionately to global growth. 最大的区别就是中国，一个在1999年经济中扮演跑龙套的配角的中国，目前已经是世界上第二大经济体，对全球经济增长作出巨大贡献。
But there are three trends at work that destabilised the world economy then and could do the same now. 但也有使得当时世界经济不稳定三个趋势，也会对现在经济产生影响。
The first is the gap between America, where growth is accelerating, and almost everywhere else, where it is slowing. 第一个趋势是美国，经济增长加快，而几乎其他任何地方经济正出现放缓。
In the late 1990s Larry Summers, then the US deputy treasury secretary, warned that the world economy was flying on one engine. 在20世纪90年代后期美国财政部副部长拉里·萨默斯警告说，世界经济是依靠单台引擎在飞驰。
For 2015 The Economist's panel of forecasters expects 3% growth in America, compared with 1.1% in Japan and the euro area. 《经济学家》预测专家对于2015年进行预测：美国经济增长3％，在日本和欧元区为1.1％。
China's growth rate may fall to around 7%. 中国的经济增长速度可能回落至7％左右。
Americans can comfort themselves that, as in the late 1990s, the optimism gap is partially warranted. 美国人可以安慰自己的是，在上世纪90年代后期，乐观缺口部分得到了填补和保障。
Jobs are being created in their country faster than at any time since 1999, cheap petrol has buoyed consumer spending and business investment has picked up. 1999年以来美国创造了比以往任何时候都要快的就业率，价格便宜的汽油提升了消费者支出，并且商业投资回升。
But the news is not all good: cheaper oil could tip plenty of America's shale producers into bankruptcy in 2015, while a stronger dollar and weakness abroad will hurt exporters—just as they did 15 years ago. 但并非全是喜讯：便宜的油可能会使得许多美国的页岩生产商在2015年破产，当美元走强和外币出现疲软时会伤害出口商—和他们15年前如出一辙。Britain, the other Anglosphere champion, may also be clobbered by the euro zone's woes. 英国，其他盎格鲁势力范围的捍卫者，也可能被欧元区的危机重挫。
The second worrying parallel with the late 1990s is the dismal outlook for the rich world's two other big economies. 上世纪90年代末的第二个令人担忧的是世界上其他两大经济体惨淡前景。
Germany's growth rate has tumbled to around 1% and there is a deeper malaise caused by years of underinvestment, 德国的
增长率已经下降到1％左右，多年投资不足导致更深的萎靡现象，
a disastrous energy policy and a government that is too obsessed by its fiscal targets to spend money and too frightened of its voters to push through the sort of structural reforms that Gerhard Schr?der implemented in 2003. 灾难性的能源政策和政府过于迷恋其财政目标来花费金钱，太害怕选民对推动政府进行如格哈德·施罗德于2003年实施的结构性改革，Meanwhile Japan has repeated the error it made in 1997—thwarting its escape from stagnation with a premature rise in consumption tax. 同时日本已经出现了1997年所犯的错误—挫败了其逃离经济停滞与过早增加消费税。
The third echo of the 1990s is the danger in emerging markets. 上世纪90年代的第三波回音是新兴市场的危险。
Back then the problem was fixed exchange rates and hefty foreign debt. 当时的问题是固定汇率和巨额外债。
Now the debts are lower, the exchange rates float and most governments have built up reserves. 现在，债务较低，汇率浮动，大多数国家的政府都建立了储备。
Still, there are growing signs of trouble, especially in Russia. 不过，也有麻烦越来越多的迹象，尤其是在俄罗斯。
But other commodity exporters also look vulnerable, especially in Africa. 但其他大宗商品出口国也很脆弱，尤其是在非洲。
Oil accounts for 95% of Nigeria's exports and 75% of its government revenue. 石油占95％，尼日利亚的出口和政府财政收入的75％。
Ghana has already gone to the IMF for support. In other countries the danger lies in the corporate sector. 加纳已经申请国际货币经济组织的支持。在其他国家的危险存在于企业部门。
Many Brazilian firms are heavily indebted in dollars. 许多巴西公司都对美元负债累累。
A rash of corporate defaults may prove less spectacular than Asia's sovereign-debt crises in the 1990s, but they will make investors nervous and push up the dollar. 一连串企业违约可能比亚洲的主权债务危机在20世纪90年代不那么引人注目，但他们会让投资者紧张，推升美元。
Fear the hangover 心有余悸
Add all this up and 2015 seems likely to be bumpy. 把所有这一切添加起来思考可以想见2015年很可能是崎岖不平的。Bears will bet that a surging dollar coupled with euro-zone torpor and a few emerging-market crises will eventually prompt a downturn in America. 大咖们会打赌，一个美元升值加上欧元区迟钝和一些新兴市场的危机最终会促使美国进入经济低迷时期。
On the plus side, stockmarkets do not look as frothy as they did in the 1990s: 从有利的一面看，股市不会像他们在上世纪90年代那样看起来像泡沫：
the price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 is 18, not far above its historical average. 在标准普尔500指数的价格收益比是18，而不是远高于历史平均水平。
Although many big tech firms are investing recklessly, most have decent balance-sheets. 尽管许多大型科技公司正在投资硬拼，最有体面的资产负债表。
And the global financial system is less leveraged and hence less vulnerable to contagion. 与全球金融体系的杠杆率较低，因此不容易受到传染。
In 1998 Russia's default felled LTCM, a big American hedge fund. 1998年，俄罗斯对美国长期资本管理公司（LTCM）发生了债务违约，这是一家大型美国对冲基金，结果致使该公司垮台。
Such knock-on effects are less likely today. 这样连锁反应是不太可能出现在今天。
But if the world economy does stumble, restoring stability will be harder this time round because policymakers have so little room for manoeuvre. 但是，如果世界经济不摔跟头，恢复稳定将在这一次变得更为困难，因为政策制定者有那么一点回旋的余地。
Back in 1999 the Federal Reserve's policy rate was around 5%, leaving plenty of scope for cutting when the economy slowed. 早在1999年，美联储的政策利率是5％左右，经济放缓时留出足够的余地去削减利率。
Nowadays interest rates all over the rich world are close to zero. 现在的利率都在富裕国家接近于零。
The political scene is also different, and not in a good way. 政坛出现了不利的变化。
At the end of the 1990s most people in the rich world had enjoyed the fruits of the boom: median American wages rose by 7.7% in real terms in 1995-2000. 在20世纪90年代，大多数人在富裕世界的尽头尽享繁荣的成果:美国中产阶级工资在1995-2000年实际上涨了7.7％。
Since 2007, by contrast, they have been flat in America, and have fallen in Britain and much of the euro zone. 自2007年以来，相比之下，美国工资增长持平，英国和大部分欧元区工资甚至出现下降。
All over the rich world voters are already grumpy with their governments, as polling numbers and their willingness to vote for protest parties show. 各地富国选民已经对他们的政府持不满态度，正如民意测验记录以及他们愿意把票投给抗议党即可看出。
If they are squeezed next year discontent will turn to anger. 如果他们被打压，明年的不满会变成愤怒。
The economics of 2015 may look similar to the late 1990s, but the politics will probably be rather worse. 2015年的经济可能类似于20世纪90年代末，但政治形势可能会相当糟糕。译者：肖登怡
6、Business Apple iThrone Apple reigns supreme when it comes to making money, but now faces even greater expectations 商业报道苹果公司霸业已成说到企业的赚钱能力方面，苹果公司无疑是全球的霸主，但现在他们却面临着更高的期望NEVER before has so much money been made by a single firm in such a short period of time. 单单一家公司，在这么短的时间内赚了这么多钱，历史上从未有过。On January 27th Tim Cook, the boss of Apple, announced that it had made 18 billion in its latest fiscal quarter,which ran almost to the end of December 2014. 1月27日当天，苹果公司CEO蒂姆·库克宣布，在最新的财务季度当中公司获得了180亿美元的净利润。
That beats the previous record of 15.9 billion reported by ExxonMobil, an oil company, in 2012, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. 而根据标普道琼斯指数公司的资料显示，这一数据打破了先前由石油公司埃克森美孚于2012年所创下单季度159亿美元的记录。Apple's telephone-number-sized profit stemmed largely from sales of its hugely popular iPhone, which accounted for over two-thirds of its 74.6 billion revenue. 苹果的巨额利润中很大部分来源于它旗下十分受欢迎的产品iPhone，在公司746亿美元的季度营业收入，iPhone占了三分之二。
Chief executives rarely admit to being dumbfounded by their companies' performance, 一般而言，首席执行官很少承认自己会被公司的表现吓呆，but Mr Cook said it was hard to comprehend the extent of the interest in Apple's products. 但库克先生却表示难以理解市场对苹果产品的着迷程度。
He noted that, on average, 34,000 iPhones were bought every hour of every day during the latest quarter. 他还提到，在最新的财务季度期间内，平均每天的每小时都要售出34000台iPhone手机，That added up to 74.5m phones, way more than market-watchers had expected. 而最终的季度总销量则为7450万台，远超市场分析师预期。
Apple is the world's largest company by market capitalisation as well as its most profitable. 无论是从总市值还是从盈利能力方面来看，苹果都是全球最大的公司。
Strikingly, it has risen to greatness using a rather old-fashioned business model: 然而，令人惊讶的地方却是苹果取得这一成绩的方法。selling highly desirable objects at fat gross margins, which hit almost 40% in the latest quarter. 它所用的是一个相当传统的商业模型：在高毛利率的情况下（最新一季中约为40%），大卖抢手货。T
he tech industry has spawned numerous software-based firms, such as Google and Facebook, 科技产业孕育出了无数以软件为基础的公司，如谷歌和脸谱，that don't have to worry about shifting goods around, yet they make much less than the Colossus of Cupertino. 他们也不需要进行真实的货物流通，但他们赚的钱较库比蒂诺的巨无霸要少得多。
Amazon handles lots of physical goods, but loses money. 亚马逊公司的主营业务为处理大量的实体商品，但该公司却处于亏损状态。
Another thing that sets Apple apart from the tech pack is its success in conquering China. 另一个使得苹果公司在同行中脱颖而出的因素，在于其对中国市场的成功占领。
While rivals have been frustrated there, Apple has just become the largest force in China's smartphone market measured by units shipped, 它的对手们纷纷在中国折戟沉沙之时，苹果公司却成为了中国智能手机市场的霸主。苹果手机的出货量为中国第一。according to Canalys, a market-research firm. 这是根据市场研究机构易观国际所提供的资料得出的结果。Apple's revenue from the Greater China region, which includes Taiwan and Hong Kong, soared 70%, to just over 16 billion. 苹
果在大中华区的产品销售收入增长了70%，其数额略高于160亿美元。Any setback in China could hurt Apple. 在中国市场的任何挫折，都可能使苹果公司遭受沉重打击。
The company's overall dependence on the iPhone is another risk. 而苹果对旗下产品iPhone的全面依赖性，无疑是另一个风险。
But these are early days for the iPhone 6, 但这部分担忧对于iPhone 6来说还言之尚早。
Apple's latest device, whose bigger screen takes the firm into the phablet category of larger phones that are wildly popular with customers. 作为苹果公司的最新产品，iPhone 6拥有比以往更大的屏幕，引领公司进入到了平板手机的竞争领域，而目前消费者们正是对大屏幕手机青睐有加。
Some iBulls also point out that Apple's share of the smartphone market is small compared with devices using Google's Android operating system. 一部分资深果粉还指出，与谷歌的安卓操作系统相比，苹果的智能手机市场占有率还是算小的。So it has plenty of room to grow. 因此，苹果手机还有充足的增长空间。
If it is still to reduce its dependence on iPhones, Apple will need new money-spinning gizmos. 如果苹果公司仍旧要降低其对iPhone系列的依赖性，那么就需要有新的盈利产品。
Mr Cook said this week that its much-ballyhooed smartwatch will go on sale in April. 本周，库克先生表示万众期待的智能手表将会在4月正式发售。
Tim Bajarin of Creative Strategies, a consulting firm, 创意策略咨询公司顾问蒂姆·巴加林认为，
thinks Apple could sell 22m-24m in the first 12 months after the launch, producing billions of dollars of new revenue. 苹果能够在该产品首发的12个月内卖出2200万至2400万个，获得数十亿的新营收。
Sanford C. Bernstein, a research firm, reckons the watches will have a higher-than-average gross margin, which bodes well for profits. 斯坦福·伯恩斯坦公司则估计，苹果手表能够拥有高于平均水平的销售毛利率，而这便预示着可观的利润。Apple should be able to make more money from software and services, too. 与此同时，苹果公司也应该能在软件和服务方面赚取更多的钱。
The firm's online store of software apps had its busiest-ever day on January 1st and the introduction of a smart watch will lead to another app feeding frenzy. 本年的1月1日，苹果的线上应用商城迎来了有史以来业务最繁忙的一天，而智能手表的推广也会引发另一场应用抢购狂潮。
Apple profits by taking a chunk of the money developers make from app sales and in-app purchases. 苹果公司的盈利点在于，从软件开发者的应用软件销售额和应用内的产品服务销售额两部分当中，抽取大量的提成。
By binding customers into its ecosystem of hardware and software plus services such as Apple Pay, 通过将消费者与苹果的硬件、软件和服务三者紧密结合的方式，
a contactless-payment system,the firm also makes it more likely they will stay with it when they upgrade their gadgets. 苹果公司构建出了自己的生态系统，这也令消费者们在对自己的设备更新换代之时，更有可能继续购买苹果的产品。
This still leaves the company with a headache other firms would die to have: 苹果公司所头疼的问题，正是其他公司拼了命都想得到东西：
its Croesus-like mountain of cash, which now stands at 178 billion 堆积如山的现金。目前，苹果所拥有的现金为1780亿美元，
a figure that is greater than the market capitalisations of information-technology giants such as Intel and IBM. 这个数字比信息技术巨头英特尔和IBM公司的市值还要高。
Apple, which has already spent billions of dollars on share buy-backs, will revisit its plans to return money to shareholders and discuss them in April. 苹果公司早已花费了数十亿美金用以股份回购，而它将会重新制定其对股东们现金返还计划，并将在今年4月对此进行商讨。
Mr Cook can expect plenty of calls from activist investors before then, no doubt from their shiny new iPhones. 在那之前，库克先生就可以预想到大量活跃市场人士的来电。毫无疑问，这些人当然是用他们纤薄的新版iPhone打过来的。译者：颜士竣校对：周鼎烨
Leopard seals share their suppers 豹海豹会分享它们的晚餐 Bad news if you are a penguin 假如你是一只企鹅，这真是个坏消息 Leopard seals resemble their terrestrial namesakes in two ways.They have polka-dot pelts.And they are powerful,generally solitary carnivores that are quite capable of killing a human being if they so choose—as has indeed happened once,in2003,when a British marine biologist was the victim. 豹海豹与生活在陆地上的同名动物（豹）有着两点相似之处。其一，它们的皮毛上都有着圆点花纹。其二，它们都是强大的独栖性食肉动物，只要它们愿意，是完全有能力杀死一个人的——正如2003年真实发生的那样，当时一位英国海洋生物学家就成了受害者。 Curiously,though,there have also been reports of leopard seals behaving in a friendly manner towards people—apparently trying to present gifts,in the form of prey,to divers. 但奇怪的是，也有报道称豹海豹对人类表现得十分友好——它们很显然把猎物作为礼物赠送给了潜水员。 Until now,there has been no explanation for this philanthropy.But work just published in Polar Biology by James Robbins of Plymouth University, in Britain,suggests that what the seals are actually looking for is a dining partner.
Japanese commuters try new ways to deter gropers 日本通勤族尝试用新方法防止性骚扰 Victims are fighting back with apps,badges and invisible ink 受害者正在用应用程序、徽章和隐形墨水来反击 Throughout her20s,Yayoi Matsunaga was groped,almost daily,on packed rush-hour trains going to and from work.Three decades later,she discovered that her friend’s daughter was being molested on her commute to high school. 在松永弥生20多岁的时候，她几乎每天都会在上下班高峰拥挤的列车上被人骚扰。30年过去了，她发现她朋友的女儿仍会在上高中的通勤路上被人骚扰。 The teenager,after fruitless talks with the police and railway companies, decided to hang a sign from her bag that read:“Groping is a crime.I will not cry myself to sleep.”The groping stopped immediately. 在与警方和铁路部门交涉无果后，这名女孩决定在她的书包上挂一个牌子，上面写着：“性骚扰就是犯罪，我不会暗自哭泣的。”效果立竿见影。 Inspired,Ms Matsunaga launched a crowdfunding campaign in2015to create badges with the same message.They proved as effective as the sign: nearly95%of users stopped experiencing groping on public transport, according to a survey.
Autism? 自闭症 Why it's not “Rain Woman”? 为什么它不是“雨女” Women have fewer cognitive disorders than men do because their bodies are better at ignoring the mutations which cause them? 与男性相比，患有认知障碍的女性较少，因为她们自身的身体能更好的忽略导致认知障碍的基因突变 AUTISM is a strange condition. Sometimes its symptoms of “social blindness”(an inability to read or comprehend the emotions of others) occur alone. This is dubbed high-functioning autism, or Asperger's syndrome. Though their fellow men and women may regard them as a bit odd, high-functioning autists are often successful (sometimes very successful) members of society. On other occasions, though, autism manifests as part of a range of cognitive problems. Then, the condition is debilitating. What is common to those on all parts of the so-called autistic spectrum is that they are more often men than women —so much more often that one school of thought suggests autism is an extreme manifestation of what it means, mentally, to be male. Boys are four times more likely to be diagnosed with autism than girls are. For high-functioning autism, the ratio is seven to one.?
The dash off cash 挥金如土 Rich countries must start planning for a cashless future 发达国家必须开始为无现金的未来做计划 For the past3,000years,when people thought of money they thought of cash.From buying food to settling bar tabs,day-to-day dealings involved creased paper or clinking bits of metal. 在过去的3000年里，每当提起钱，人们总会想到现金。从购买食物到酒吧吧台结算消费，日常交易用到的都是皱巴巴的纸币或叮当作响的硬币。 Over the past decade,however,digital payments have taken off—tapping your plastic on a terminal or swiping a smartphone has become normal.然而，过去十年间，数字支付已经兴起——在终端上刷卡或刷手机已经变得平常。Now this revolution is about to turn cash into an endangered species in some rich economies.That will make the economy more efficient—but it also poses new problems that could hold the transition hostage. 如今，这场革命即将要把一些发达国家的现金变为“濒危物种”。数字支付能够让经济更高效，但同时也带来了一些可能会阻碍经济转型的新的问题。 Countries are eliminating cash at varying speeds.But the direction of travel is clear,and in some cases the journey is nearly complete.In Sweden the number of retail cash transactions per person has fallen by80%in the
The Brain Activity Map 绘制大脑活动地图 Hard cell 棘手的细胞 An ambitious project to map the brain is in the works. Possibly too ambitious 一个绘制大脑活动地图的宏伟计划正在准备当中，或许有些太宏伟了 NEWS of what protagonists hope will be America’s next big science project continues to dribble out. 有关其发起人心中下一个科学大工程的新闻报道层出不穷。 A leak to the New York Times, published on February 17th, let the cat out of the bag, with a report that Barack Obama’s administration is thinking of sponsoring what will be known as the Brain Activity Map. 2月17日，《纽约时报》刊登的一位线人报告终于泄露了秘密，报告称奥巴马政府正在考虑赞助将被称为“大脑活动地图”的计划。 And on March 7th several of those protagonists published a manifesto for the project in Science. 3月7日，部分发起人在《科学》杂志上发表声明证实了这一计划。 The purpose of BAM is to change the scale at which the brain is understood. “大脑活动地图”计划的目标是改变人们在认知大脑时采用的度量方法。 At the moment, neuroscience operates at two disconnected levels. 眼下，神经学的研究处在两个断开的层次。 The higher one, where the dimensions of features are measured in centimetres, has many techniques at its disposal, notably functional magnetic-res onance imaging, which measures changes in tissues’ fuel consumption. 在相对宏观的层次当中各个特征的规模用厘米来衡量，有很多技术可以使用，尤其是用来测量组织中能量消耗变动情况的核磁共振成像技术。 This lets researchers see which bits of the brain are active in particular tasks—as long as those tasks can be performed by a person lying down inside a scanner. 该技术可使研究人员找出在完成具体的任务时，大脑的哪些部分处于活跃状态。At the other end of the scale, where features are measured in microns, lots of research has been done on how individual nerve cells work, how messages are sent from one to another, and how the connections between cells strengthen and weaken as memories are formed. 而另一个度量的层次则要求用微米来测量各种特征，这一层次的研究很多都是关于单个神经细胞是如何工作的、信息在神经细胞之间是如何传递的以及当产生记忆的时候神经细胞之间的联系是如何得到加强和减弱的。 Between these two, though, all is darkness. 然而，位于这两个层次之间的研究还处于一片漆黑当中。 It is like trying to navigate America with an atlas that shows the states, the big cities and the main highways, and has a few street maps of local neighbourhoods, but displays nothing in between.
What went wrong IN RECENT months many economists and policymakers, including such unlikely bedfellows as Paul Krugman, an economist and New York Times columnist, and Hank Paulson, a former American treasury secretary, have put “global imbalances”—the huge current-account surpluses run by countries like China, alongside America’s huge deficit—at the root of the financial crisis. But the IMF disagrees. It argues, in new papers released on Friday March 6th, that the “main culprit” was deficient regulation of t he financial system, together with a failure of market discipline. Olivier Blanchard, the IMF's chief economist, said this week that global imbalances contributed only “indirectly” to the crisis. This may sound like buck-passing by the world’s main interna tional macroeconomic organisation. But the distinction has important consequences for whether macroeconomic policy or more regulation of financial markets will provide the solutions to the mess. In broad strokes, the global imbalances view of the crisis argues that a glut of money from countries with high savings rates, such as China and the oil-producing states, came flooding into America. This kept interest rates low and fuelled the credit boom and the related boom in the prices of assets, such as houses and equity, whose collapse precipitated the financial crisis. A workable long-term fix for the problems of the world economy would, therefore, involve figuring out what to do about these imbalances. But the IMF argues that imbalances could not have caused the crisis without the creative ability of financial institutions to develop new structures and instruments to cater to investors’ demand for higher yields. These instruments turned out to be more risky than they appeared. Investors, overly optimistic about continued rises in asset prices, did not look closely into the nature of the assets that they bought, preferring to rely on the analysis of credit-rating agencies which were, in some cases, also selling advice on how to game the ratings system. This “failure of market discipline”, the fund argues, played a big role in the crisis. As big a problem, according to the IMF, was that financial regulation was flawed, ineffective and too limited in scope. What it calls the “shadow banking system”—the loosely regulated but highly interconnected network of investment banks, hedge funds, mortgage originators, and the like—was not subject to the sorts of prudential regulation (capital-adequacy norms, for example) that applied to banks. In part, the fund argues, this was because they were not thought to be systemically important, in the sense that banks were understood to be. But their being unregulated made it more attractive for banks (whose affiliates the non-banks often were) to evade capital requirements by pushing risk into these entities. In time, this network of institutions grew so large that they were indeed systemically important: in the now-familiar phrase, they were “too big” or “too interconnected” to fail. By late 2007, some estimates of the assets of the bank-like institutions in America outside the scope of existing prudential regulation, was around $10 trillion, as large as the assets of the regulated American banking system itself. Given this interpretation, it is not surprising that the IMF has thrown its weight strongly behind an enormous increase in the scale and scope of financial regulation in a series of papers leading up to the G20 meetings. Among many other proposals, it wants the shadow banking system to be subjected to the same sorts of prudential requirements that banks must follow. Sensibly, it is calling for regulation to concentrate on what an institution does, not what it is called (that is, the basis of regulation should be activities, not entities). It also wants regulators to focus more broadly on
2018考研英语：阅读经济学人文章（一） German politics 德国政治 Gone boy on the right 消失的极右领袖 How an anti-foreigner, anti-establishment group ischanging German politics 一个反移民、反伊斯兰化组织如何改变德国政治 Bachmann: only joking, honest 巴赫曼：真的只是玩笑罢了 THE march on January 19th in Dresden by Pegida, or “Patriotic Europeans against theIslamisation of the Occident”, would have been its 13th. But it was cancelled because the policehad “concrete”information of plans to assassinate its organiser, Lutz Bachmann. On January21st Mr Bachmann was exposed in German tabloids for posing as Hitler on his Facebook page.He called it a joke, but later resigned his position. Pegida plans to resume its marches nextweek. 1月19日，在德累斯顿爆发了一场由Pegida(或者称作“爱国欧洲人反对西方的伊斯兰化”)发起的游行。本来这次游行应该在13号举行，但是由于警方获知了刺杀该运动领袖卢茨巴赫曼行动的“详细”信息而被取消。1月21日，巴赫曼因为在“脸书”(Facebook)上传其模仿希特勒的照片而被德国小报争相报道。他声称这只是一个玩笑，但是随后他宣布辞职。Pegida计划下周恢复游行。 Among its followers, despite Mr Bachmann's antics, neo-Nazis are a small minority. The typicalmarcher is a middle-aged, middle-class Saxon man who, says Hans V orl?nder at the TechnicalUniversity of Dresden, is alienated from politics and the liberal media, and yearns for ahomogenous fatherland. The marches may have “passed the peak”, adds Dieter Rucht at theBerlin Social Science Centre. Yet there will be political fallout. Nine-tenths of Pegida supportersback the Alternative for Germany (AfD), founded only in 2013 and represented in three easternstate parliaments. 在该运动众多的追随者中，除了巴赫曼这种滑稽行为的人，新纳粹仍是少数。据来自德尔德累斯顿技术大学的汉斯?福尔兰德尔讲，其中有一位的游行示威者是较为典型，他是一个来自于萨克森州的中年中产阶级男性，他对政治和自由媒体漠不关心，却呼唤一个同文同种的父国。柏林社会科学研究中心的Dieter Rucht说到，这支游行队伍可能已经“越过底线”。也许会带来某些政治后果。Pegida运动中有十分之九的支持者拥护德国新选项党(AfD)，该党于2013年刚刚成立，享有东部三个州的议会席位。
1、The Americas Argentina's debt Let's not make a deal Argentina may spurn a chance to settle with its creditors 美洲阿根廷债务别签协议啦阿根廷或将还债机会弃如敝履 WHEN Argentina defaulted on its debt for the second time in 13 years last July, the government blamed a pesky clause in its contracts with bondholders. 去年七月，阿根廷发生了十三年来的第二次债务违约，而政府却将这次违约归咎于与债权人签订的合同中的某项麻烦条款。 The so-called Rights Upon Future Offers (RUFO) clause was set to expire on December 31st,in theory opening the way to a settlement with bondholders who had refused Argentina's earlier offers of partial payment. 由于之前债权人拒绝阿根廷部分偿还，这项本应于12月31日到期的未来发行权利（RUFO）条款理论上可以解决与债权人之间的债务问题。 A deal would make it easier to borrow dollars, which the country badly needs to pay for imports. 这项协议可以为阿根廷借入美元提供更多便利，有了美元，阿根廷就可以解决进口商品所使用货币的燃眉之急。 But the president, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, may spurn the opportunity. 不过，克里斯蒂娜?费尔南德斯?基什内尔总统却有可能将这一机会弃如敝履。 After its previous default (in 2001) Argentina offered RUFO as a way to entice bond holders to swap the old debt for new bonds worth much less than the original ones. 上次（2001年）债务违约后，阿根廷通过RUFO 怂恿债券持有人进行债务掉期，也就是说用原先价格较低的旧债券交换价格较高的新债券。 The clause says that any future deal offered to some bondholders would be extended to all of them. 这一条款规定，合同签署后，政府和部分债券持有人达成的协议将适用于全体债券持有人。 In 2012 a court in New York ruled that Argentina would have to pay in full the small minority of bondholders who refused the debt swap. 2012年，纽约一家法院判定阿根廷政府应向拒绝债务掉期的少数债券持有人一次付清所有债务。 These are mostly American hedge funds, which bought the bonds at a fraction of their face value. 后者主要是美国对冲基金，它们当初就是以远远低于面值的价格买入了阿根廷债券。 Argentina argued that complying with the court order would trigger billions in payments to all holders of bonds issued under New York law, and so chose to default. 阿根廷称，根据纽约法律，按法庭裁决行事将导致对债券持有人支付高达数十亿的费用，于是便选择了违约。 Since the court's ruling, its foreign-exchange reserves have dwindled to 30 billion, less than needed to pay for six months' imports. 法院作出判决后，阿根廷外汇储备已缩减至300亿美元，甚至不足以支付六个月的商品进口。 Low commodity prices mean that few dollars are flowing in. 较低物价意味着美元流入会更少。 The government has responded by further restricting imports, which has led to shortages of supplies to factories and of some consumer goods. 由于限制进口导致工厂供货和部分日用品出现了短缺，政府已对进一步限制进口做出了回应。 That is one reason why the economy is expected to shrink by around 1% in 2015. 这便是阿根廷经济增速预计将在2015年下跌1个百分点的原因之一。 Debt payments during the year will siphon off some 40% of international reserves. 全年的债务将造成外汇储备流失40%。In December Argentina tried to reduce that drain by offering holders of bonds due for repayment new securities that mature in 2024. 十二月时，阿根廷曾试图给债券持有人提供2024年到期的新债券，以避免本国外汇储备消耗过快。 The gambit failed miserably:just 4% of creditors volunteered to exchange their 2015 bonds. 这项策略后以惨败告终:只有4%的债权人自愿用2015年债券进行兑换。 Things are so desperate that the government will soon make an attractive offer to holdout bondholders, some observers believe. 一些观察家认为，当前情况万分危急，政府不久就会制定出富有吸引力的政策来维系人心。 The expiration of the RUFO clause makes the cost bearable; the government would not have to make the same offer to the other bondholders. 这次RUFO条款期满后，违约成本尚可担负；但政府今后不会再和其他债券持有人签署同样的协议了。But that is a minority view. 不过，这只是小部分人的看法。 The real obstacles to paying off the holdouts have always been political rather than contractual, many think. 许多人认为，一直以来，政府无力清偿债务的真正原因都不是合同问题，而是各种政治方面的因素。 Ms Fernandez and her advisers demonised them as vultures and blamed them for many of Argentina's woes. 在费尔南德斯总
2017考研备考英语阅读题源经济学人文 章：Black Friday Black Friday 黑色星期五 The long weekend 漫长的周末 A new, earlier discount frenzy grips Christmasshoppers 新一轮提前促销打折狂潮吸引了众多圣诞购物者 THE rhythms of Christmas used to be so simple. Buypresents in December, eat and drink too much, return unwanted gifts, then hunt bargains inthe January sales. Such habits may now be altered by the arrival on British shores of BlackFriday, an American retail phenomenon. 圣诞的节奏一直都很单一。在12月买礼物，尽情吃喝，再退还那些不中意的礼物，然后在一月大减价之际狂购便宜货到手软。而如今这样的习惯，很可能随着“黑色星期五”—美版“双十一”—登陆不列颠海岸而悄然改变。 Black Friday is the day after Thanksgiving. This year it falls on November 28th. As Thanksgivingday revolves around the eating, so Black Friday revolves around the shopping. It has becomethe biggest day of the year for American retailers as they discount thousands of products,kick-starting the Christmas shopping season. According to one story the name thus refers toshops doing such booming trade that they go from the red into the black. It might equally benamed because of the casualty rate. Shoppers get hurt in the stampede for bargains. Somehave even died. “黑色星期五”就是每年感恩节之后的第一天。今年就是11月28日。像感恩节的主题是美食一样，“黑色星期五”的主题便是购物。因在“黑色星期五”商家们会给成千上万的商品大打折扣开启圣诞购物季，由此这一天成了美国零售商们每年最盛大的一天，有一种说法是，这个名字正说明了那些在这天生意异常兴隆的商家大额进账，转亏为盈(红色记录赤字，黑色记录盈利)。还有一种说法是因为在这天的伤亡率。顾客们会在争抢折扣商品的拥堵人群中受伤。有些人甚至会为此丧命。 Since they do not celebrate Thanksgiving, Brits had never taken to Black Friday, until last year.Then, some British retailers joined American-owned companies like Amazon to introduce bigsavings. This year many more have embraced it. Visa Europe predicts that shoppers will spend6,000 per second on the day. John Lewis, a big London department store, is opening for itslongest day ever, from 8am to 10pm. 因为从来不过感恩节，所以去年之前英国人对黑色星期五一直无感。而其后，部分英国零售商加盟了类似亚马逊这种美国公司来引进各种省钱方式。在今年，已有更多的零售商投入到这些公司的怀抱。据维信欧洲(VisaEurope，信用卡集团)预测，在黑色星期五这一天，购物者们将每秒消费6000英镑。英国一家大型零售商店约翰·路易斯，在这天也会迎来其
Climate change and the threat to companies 气候变化和企业面临的风险 Firms urgently need to rethink how they approach climate risk 企业迫切需要重新考虑如果应对气候风险了 C hief executives who care about climate change—and these days most profess to—often highlight headquarters bedecked with solar panels and other efforts to lower their carbon footprint. 那些关心气候变化的首席执行官们（如今大多数的CEO都自称如此）常常强调，他们的公司总部采用了太阳能电池板以及其他措施来减少碳足迹。 Last week Volkswagen, a carmaker, told its 40,000 suppliers to cut emissions or risk losing its custom. 上周，汽车制造商大众集团要求其4万家供应商减少碳排放，否则他们将面临失去大众这位客户的风险。 Plenty of investors, meanwhile, say they are worried about being saddled with worthless stakes in coal-fired power plants if carbon taxes eventually bite. Yet the reality is that meaningful global environmental regulations are nowhere on the horizon.
A hit TV series in China skewers cranky old parents 一部在中国热播的电视连续剧讽刺了脾气古怪的老父母们 Defying the cult of filial piety thrills viewers 对崇尚孝道的反抗令观众们激动不已 It is no mean feat to be one of the top-ten trending hashtags on Weibo, China’s equivalent of Twitter,for20consecutive days and counting.“All is Well”,a show on provincial television which premiered on March1st,has done just that. 连续20天成为微博（中国版的推特）十大热门话题之一并不是一件容易的事。3月1日，在省级电视台首播的电视连续剧《都挺好》做到了。 The show tells the story of a fictional Chinese family torn by internal conflict.The female protagonist,Su Mingyu,is barely on speaking terms with her widowed father and one of her two brothers. 这部电视剧讲述了一个虚构的中国家庭因内部矛盾而走向破裂的故事。女主角苏明玉和她丧偶的父亲以及两个哥哥中的一个关系不和。 The father is a nagging crank who expects his two adult sons to bankroll his lavish tastes.This leads to constant bickering between the brothers,neither of whom wants to be called unfilial.