6、（ ）是通过能力和输送能力的总称。 A ．运输能力 B ．运营能力 C ．载客能力 D ．运转能力
7、列车由车站通过所经过的正线接车进路和正线同方向发车进路组成的进路叫（ ）。 A ．接车进路 B ．发车进路 C ．通过进路 D ．转场进路
8、由于人为操作失误（包括故障处理失当）、故意行为等造成影响列车运行组织的情况，过往事故的统计数据表明，约（ ）以上事故的发生都是由于人为因素造成的。 A ．70% B ．50% C ．30% D ．20%
9、为确保施工计划得以实施，城市轨道交通运营单位都会制定相应的考核目标，一般而言，日变更计划兑现率要求达到（ ）。 A ．85% B ．90% C ．95% D ．100% 10、根据我国《地铁运营安全评价标准》，死亡30人及以上的事故构成（ ） A ．一般事故 B ．重大事故 C ．特别重大事故 D ．险性事故 二、填空题：（20×1分=20分） 1、城市轨道交通系统可以分为市郊铁路、 、 、独轨铁路和自动导向交通系统等类型。 2、轨道是一个整体性工程结构，一般由钢轨、 、道床、防爬设备和 组成。 3、按同方向列车运行方式分，列车运行图可分为 和 。 4、根据城市轨道交通系统线路多为双线、较少有侧线等特点，列车交路分为 、 和混合交路三种。 5、城市轨道交通列车司机的乘务制式有 和 。 6、根据不同进路之间的关系，进路可分为 、 和 。 7、城市轨道交通列车根据其用途分为客车、 和 。 8、道岔故障分为 、 和正线挤岔。 9、列车自动运行控制系统包括 、 、 和计算机试卷编号：
评分人 得分
（10×2分=20分）
）1、混合式站台车站的缺点是站厅客流组织难度大，乘客容易下错站台。
）2、规定限界的目的，主要是为了防止车辆在直线或曲线上运行时与各种建筑物以及设备发生接触。
）3、内燃机车使用柴油机动力，一般用于城市轨道交通工程领域，但在特殊情况下可担任电客车救援、调动等任务。
）4、平板车是一种不带动力的车辆，主要用于运送钢材、木材、汽车、机械设备等体积或重量较大的货物，也可借助集装箱运送其他货物等，与内燃机车联挂运作。
）5、我国城市轨道交通线路正线一般采用75kg/m钢轨。
）6、在自动驾驶时，列车自动防护子系统得到列车自动驾驶子系统的发车确认信息后，操纵列车自动启动。
）7、混合交路是指列车在线路运行中结合了长交路、短交路两种情况的运行模式。
）8、折返列车在终点站的折返间隔时间是决定列车折返设备通过能力大小的基本参数，也是影响城市轨道交通通过能力的主要因素之一。
）9、满足型轨道交通规划已成为各个城市发展轨道交通的基本规划目标。
）10、客车及工程车车辆根据其所处状态不同分为运营状态和维修状态。不同的
状态下，其调度指挥权各不相同，因此从一种状态转入另一种状态时，就需要
交换调度指挥权。
5×2分=10分）
、短交路：
、电气集中联锁：3、进路：
4、危险：
5、联锁：
五、简答题：（6×5分=30分）
1、城市轨道交通规划的原则。
2、加强列车折返能力的措施。
评分人得分
评分人得分评分人得分
、城市轨道交通的特殊组织措施。
、简述大客流的定义及分类。
、简述城市轨道交通闭塞的定义和分类。6、简述行车事故处理原则。
成都信息工程学院考试试卷 2012——2013学年第2学期 课程名称：《金融时间序列分析》 班级：金保111本01、02、03班 试卷形式：开卷□闭卷日 一、判断题（每题1分，正确的在括号内打"，错误的在括号内打x,共15分） 1?模型检验即是平稳性检验（）。 2.模型方程的检验实质就是残差序列检验（）。 3?矩法估计需要知道总体的分布（）。 4. ADF检验中：原假设序列是非平稳的（）。 5?最优模型确定准则：AIC值越小、SC值越大，说明模型越优（）。 6?对具有曲线增长趋势的序列，一阶差分可剔除曲线趋势（）。 7?严平稳序列与宽平稳时序区分主要表现在定义角度不同（）。 8?某时序具有指数曲线增长趋势时，需做对数变换，才能剔除曲线趋势（）9.时间序列平稳性判断方法中ADF检验优于序时图法和自相关图检验法（）10?时间序列的随机性分析即是长期趋势分析（）。 11 ? ARMA（ p,q ）模型是ARIMA（p,d,q）模型的特例（）。 12?若某序列的均值和方差随时间的平移而变化，则该序列是非平稳的（）。 13.MA（2）模型的3阶偏自相关系数等于0（）。 14.ARMA（p,q）模型自相关系数p阶截尾，偏自相关系数拖尾（）。 15 ? MA（q）模型平稳的充分必要条件是关于后移算子B的q阶移动自回归系数多项式根的绝 对值均在单位圆内（）。 二、填空题。（每空2分，共20分） 1? X t 满足ARMA（ 1,2 ）模型即：X t = 0.43+0.34 X t/+；t + 0.8 “ - 0.2 ；t＜，则均值 = _______________________ ，片（即一阶移动均值项系数）二 _______________________ 。
精心整理 大学英语（一） 行政班级分级班级姓名学号 C. A measuring system. D. A control system. 2. A. Car prices. B. Car services.
C. The company’s business. D. The company’s culture. 3. A. It’s easy to do. B. It’s challenging. dialogue, there are some recorded questions. Both the conversations and questions will be spoken two times. Conversation 1
6. A. Breakfast. B. Dinner. C. A 5 dollar gift card. D. Bus service to the airport. 10. A. Make an appointment with her. B. Talk with her about a new order.
C. Send her an email about the shipment. D. Call her back when receiving the shipment. Directions: This part is to test your ability to construct grammatically correct sentences. It consists of 2 sections.
系2004级专业《大学英语》期末考试试卷(B) 楚雄师学院 2004 学年上学期期末考试卷 B 卷课程《大学英语》考试时间： 120 分钟 班级：学号 Section A Directions：In this section, you will hear 10 short conversations. At the end of each conversation, a question will be asked about what was said. Both the conversation and the question will be spoken twice. After each question there will be a pause. During the pause, you must read the four choices marked A), B), C) and D), and decide which is the best answer. Then mark the corresponding letter on the ANSWER SHEET with a single line through the center. Example：You will hear: M: Is it possible for you to work late, Miss Green? W: Work late? I suppose so, if you really think it's necessary. Q：Where do you think this conversation most probably took place? You will read: A) At the office． B) In the waiting room. C) At the airport. D) In a restaurant. From the conversation we know that the two were talking about some work they have to finish in the evening. This is most likely to have taken place at the office．Therefore, A) "At the office" is the best Answer. You should mark A) on the ANSWER SHEET with a single line through the center. 1. A) She's studying for a physics exam. B) She's planning her class schedule. C) She has a degree in astrophysics. D) She plans to graduate this year. 2. A) He already has a job. B) He wi11 probably work at the library. C) He needs to study full time. D) He plans to work at the library in the summer. 3. A) 35 miles per hour.
9. 条件异方差模型中，形如???? ? ???? ++==+=∑∑=-=---3 122121),,,(j j t j i i t i t t t t t t t t h h e h x x t f x εληωεε Λ 式中，),,,(21Λ--t t x x t f 为{t x }的回归函数，N(0,1)~i.i.d t e ，该模型简记为GARCH （2，3）模型； 10. Cox 和Jenkins 在1976年研究多元时间序列分析时要求输入序列与响应序列均要 _ 平稳 _，Engle 和Granger 在1987年提出了__协整 _关系，即当输入序列与响 应序列之间具有非常稳定的线性相关关系（回归残差序列平稳）。 二、（10分）试用特征根判别法或平稳域判别法检验下列四个AR 模型的平稳性。 （1）t 1-t t x 8.0x ε+-= （2）t 1-t t x 3.1x ε+= （3）t 2-t 1-t t x 6 1 x 61x ε++= （4）t 2-t 1-t t x 2x x ε++= 解： AR （p ）模型平稳性的特征根判别法要求所有特征根绝对值小于1； AR （1）模型平稳性的平稳域判别法要求1||1<φ， AR （2）模型平稳性的平稳域判别法要求：1,1||122<±<φφφ。 (1) 8.01-=λ 特征根判别法：平稳；18.0||1<=φ，平稳域判别法：平稳； (2) 3.11=λ 特征根判别法：非平稳；13.1||1>=φ，平稳域判别法：非平稳； (3) 特征方程为: 2 1 ,31,0)13)(12(016212=-==+-=--λλλλλλ即 由特征根判别法：平稳； 10,131 ,161||12122<=-<=+<=φφφφφ,平稳域判别法：平稳； (4) 特征方程为: 2,1,0)2)(1(02212=-==-+=--λλλλλλ即 由特征根判别法：非平稳； 11,13,12||12122不小于=->=+>=φφφφφ,平稳域判别法：非平稳。
学号 姓名 系部 专业 班级 考试科目 考试时间 年 月 日 密 封 线 山东师范大学历山学院2013-2014学年第二学期 期末考试试题（B 卷） 试题卷 （时间120分钟，满分100分） 课程编号： 课程名称： 大学英语 适用年级： 2013级 适用专业： 非英语 学制： 三 注意：1、本试题试题卷共六页。 2、本试题所有答案应写在答案卷上，否则不予计成绩。 题号 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅴ Ⅵ 总分 阅卷人 复核人 得分 Ⅰ ⅠListening Comprehension (15%) Section A Directions: In this section you will hear 10 short dialogues. At the end of each dialogue, a question will be asked about what was said. Both the dialogues and questions will be spoken twice. After each question there will be a pause. During the pause, you must read the 4 choices marked A,B,C and D,and decide which is the best answer. Then write the corresponding letter on the Answer Sheet. 1. Where did this conversation probably happen? A In a drug store. B In a shop. C In a supermarket. D In a restaurant. 2. When will the train leave? A 14:20 B 14:00 C 14:40 D 14:30 3. How many people are there in the man ’s family? A 5. B 4. C 3. D 6. 4. How is that school? A It's even worse than people say. B It's better than it used to be. C It's better than people say. D It's not as good as it was. 5. What is implied in the conversation? A The children were enjoying themselves. B The children didn't come to the party. C The children were giving a lot of fun in the party. D The children were not behaving themselves in the party. 6. What will the weather be like? A It will get better B Rainy C Sunny. D It is colder. 7. What does the woman mean? A She does not agree with the man. B She does not know what to do. C She agrees with the man. D She has a good idea.
学号 姓 系部 专业 班级 考试科目 考试时间 年 月 日 密 封 山东师范大学历山学院201３—2014学年第二学期 期末考试试题(B 卷) 试题卷 (时间12０分钟,满分10０分) 课程编号: 课程名称: 大学英语 适用年级: ２01３级 适用专业: 非英语 学制: 三 注意:１、本试题试题卷共六页。 2、本试题所有答案应写在答案卷上,否则不予计成绩。 Ⅰ ⅠListe ｎing pr ｅhens ｉｏn (1５％) Sectio ｎ Ａ D ｉｒe ｃtions: In ｔhi ｓ s ｅct ｉon ｙo ｕ ｗill ｈear 10 short dial ｏgue ｓ。 At t ｈe e ｎｄ of e ａc ｈ ｄi ａlog ｕe, a q ｕｅstion ｗｉll b ｅ asked abou ｔ w ｈa ｔ was said 、 Ｂｏth the dialo ｇues and questio ｎｓ will be spo ｋｅn tw ｉce 。 After ea ｃh q ｕest ｉon th ｅre w ｉll b ｅ a pause 。 Ｄuring the p ａu ｓe, yo ｕ must read th ｅ ４ choices marke ｄ A,B,C an ｄ D,ａnd dec ｉde w ｈich is the bes ｔ answ ｅｒ。 Then write the corresp ｏndi ｎg letter ｏn the A ｎｓwer Ｓheet 。 １。 Wher ｅ did thi ｓ c ｏnversatio ｎ p ｒo ｂa ｂl ｙ ｈappen ？ A In a d ｒu ｇ st ｏr ｅ、 Ｂ I ｎ ａ sh ｏｐ、 C In a ｓupermarke ｔ。 Ｄ In a ｒｅｓｔaurant. 2、 When wi ｌl ｔh ｅ t ｒａin leave? A １4:２0 Ｂ １４:00 Ｃ 14:40 D 14:30 3。 How m ａｎy ｐeople ar ｅ th ｅre in the m ａn ’s f ａmily ？ ?A 5。 B ４、 C 3、 D 6、 4. Ho ｗ i ｓ ｔｈａｔ school? A It ＇s even ｗo ｒs ｅ th ａn peop ｌｅ say 、 B It's bet ｔer than it used t ｏ be 。 ? C It’s b ｅtte ｒ t ｈan people sa ｙ、 D I ｔ’ｓ not a ｓ g ｏo ｄ as it w ａs 。 5。 What is imp ｌi ｅd in t ｈe co ｎversatio ｎ？ Ａ T ｈe ｃhildren w ｅr ｅ ｅｎjoyin ｇ t ｈemselve ｓ、 ? B T ｈe ch ｉldren d ｉd ｎ＇t e to th ｅ ｐar ｔy 。 ? C Ｔhe childr ｅn were ｇｉving ａ l ｏt of ｆu ｎ ｉｎ th ｅ party. Ｄ The chi ｌｄｒen wer ｅ n ｏｔ ｂe ｈa ｖi ｎg th ｅmselves ｉn ｔh ｅ party 。 6. Wha ｔ will ｔhe ｗｅathe ｒ be l ｉke ？ A Ｉt ｗｉll ｇet be ｔｔer Ｂ Ｒａiny C Ｓｕnny 、 D It ｉs ｃolder. ７。 Ｗｈat does th ｅ ｗｏman mean ？ A Sh ｅ doe ｓ not agree ｗit ｈ the ｍan 。 B She ｄｏes ｎo ｔ know what
考核课程 时间序列分析（B 卷） 考核方式 闭卷 考核时间 120 分钟 注：B 为延迟算子，使得1-=t t Y BY ；?为差分算子，。 一、单项选择题（每小题3 分，共24 分。） 1. 若零均值平稳序列{}t X ，其样本ACF 和样本PACF 都呈现拖尾性，则对{}t X 可能建立（ B ）模型。 A. MA(2) B.ARMA(1,1) C.AR(2) D.MA(1) 2.下图是某时间序列的样本偏自相关函数图，则恰当的模型是（ B ）。 A. )1(MA B.)1(AR C.)1,1(ARMA D.)2(MA 3. 考虑MA(2)模型212.09.0--+-=t t t t e e e Y ，则其MA 特征方程的根是（ C ）。 （A ）5.0,4.021==λλ （B ）5.0,4.021-=-=λλ （C ）5.2221==λλ， （D ） 5.2221=-=λλ， 4. 设有模型112111)1(----=++-t t t t t e e X X X θφφ，其中11<φ，则该模型属于（ B ）。 A.ARMA(2,1) B.ARIMA(1,1,1) C.ARIMA(0,1,1) D.ARIMA(1,2,1) 5. AR(2)模型t t t t e Y Y Y +-=--215.04.0，其中64.0)(=t e Var ，则=)(t t e Y E （ B ）。 A.0 B.64.0 C. 1 6.0 D. 2.0 6.对于一阶滑动平均模型MA(1): 15.0--=t t t e e Y ，则其一阶自相关函数为( C )。 A.5.0- B. 25.0 C. 4.0- D. 8.0 7. 若零均值平稳序列{}t X ?，其样本ACF 呈现二阶截尾性，其样本PACF 呈现拖尾性，则可初步认为对{}t X 应该建立（ B ）模型。 A. MA(2) B.)2,1(IMA C.)1,2(ARI D.ARIMA(2,1,2) 8. 记?为差分算子，则下列不正确的是（ C ）。 A. 12-?-?=?t t t Y Y Y B. 212 2--+-=?t t t t Y Y Y Y C. k t t t k Y Y Y --=? D. t t t t Y X Y X ?+?=+?） ( 二、填空题（每题3分，共24分）；
《大学英语 二》期末考试试题 I. Spell the following words according to the given meanings . (10%) 1. b___________ give birth to 2. e___________ leave unprotected; uncover 3. o___________ easily seen, recognized or understood 4. m__________ offer something for sale 5. s___________ fill something tightly with something else 6. b___________ consider or compare 7.f____________ provide money for 8. t___________ express intention of hurting, punishing, etc. 9. g_________ _______ act or be in opposition to 10.s________ _______ cause something to increase speed II. Choose the best answers: ( 20%) 1．April l st is day when strange things may happen and the best trick is that makes everyone laugh, including the “fool ”. A ．the; one B ．a; one C ．the; the one D ．a; the one 2．Dalian is well known for its mild climate, but it be very cold in winter. A ．shall B ．can C ．should D ．must 3．If we develop the world successfully, we must make sure that everyone is able to take part in the new world we create. A ．are about to B ．are going to C ．are to D ．will 4．—Did you really buy a new house in Beijing? — . A ．How do you feel it? B ．That ’s all right. C ．Believe it or not D ．It ’s up to you. 5．—Was it in 1969 the American astronauts succeeded landing on 姓名：______________ 班级：________________ 学号：_____________________ ……………………………………………………密……封……线……内……不……要……答……题…………………………………………………………
新编大学英语A2期末考试试卷 Part I Listening Comprehension(20%) Section A Directions: In this section, you will hear 10 short conversations. At the end of each conversation, a question will be asked about what was said. Both the conversation and the question will be spoken only once. After each question there will be a pause. During the pause, you must read the four choices marked A), B), C) and D), and decide which is the best answer. Then mark the corresponding letter on the Answer Sheet with a single line through the center. Section A. 1. A. An advertisement B. A newspaper C. Their work D. A dream 2. A. On foot B. By car C. By bus D. By bike 3. A. Three B. Four C. Five D. Six 4. A. The restaurant provides good food B. She enjoys her part-time job C. The restaurant offers cheap food D. There are several cooks in the restaurant. 5. A. The movie was disappointing B. The movie was expensive to see. C. He wants to see the movie again. D. He should have seen the movie at home. 6. A. $ 64 B.$ 86 C. $96 D. $140 7. A. To stay at home B. To go to bed immediately C. To see a movie D. To go to a party. 8. A. Tom is unable to hear well. B. Tom didn’t say anything at the meeting. C. Tom doesn’t listen to him. D. Tom went out before the meeting was over.
浙江农林大学 2009 - 2010 学年第 二 学期考试卷（A 卷） 课程名称： 应用时间序列分析 课程类别： 必修 考试方式： 闭卷 注意事项：1、本试卷满分100分。 2、考试时间 120分钟。 一、单项选择题（在每小题的四个备选答案中，选出一个正确 答案，并将正确答案的选项填在题后的括号内。每小题2分，共12分） 1. 关于严平稳与（宽）平稳的关系，不正确的为 。 ( ) A. 严平稳序列一定是宽平稳序列 B. 当序列服从正态分布时，两种平稳性等价 C. 二阶矩存在的严平稳序列一定为宽平稳的 D. MA(p)模型一定是宽平稳的 2. 下图为某时间序列的相关检验图，图1为自相关函数图，图2为偏自相关函数图，请选择模型 。 ( ) 图1 图2 题号 一 二 三 四 五 得分 得分 评阅人 学院： 专业班级： 姓名： 学号： 装 订 线 内 不 要 答 题 得分
A. AR(1) B. AR(2) C. MA(1) D. MA(2) 3. 下图中，图3为某序列一阶差分后的自相关函数图，图4为某序列一阶差分后的 偏自相关函数图，请对原序列选择模型。( ) 图3 图4
A.ARIMA(4，1，0) B. ARIMA(0，2，1) C. ARIMA(0，1，2) D.ARI MA(0，1，4) 4. 记B 为延迟算子，则下列不正确的是 。 ( ) A. 0 1B = B. (1)k t t k t X X B X --=- C. 12t t BX X --= D. 11()t t t t B X Y X Y --±=± 5.对于平稳时间序列，下列错误的是 ( ) A.)(212εσεE = B.),(),(k t t k t t y y Cov y y Cov -+= C.k k -=ρρ D.)(?)1(?1k y k y t t +=+ 6.下图为对某时间序列的拟合模型进行显著性水平0.05α=的显著性检验，请选择 该序列的拟合模型 。 ( )
东莞**技术学院继续教育学院试卷（A卷） 课程：大学英语1 考试形式：闭卷考试时间：月日考试地点：常平***英培训中心 班级：姓名：学号：成绩：_________ Part One: Choose the best answer to fill in the blanks. 选择填空(30分) 1: Do you like _____English? A: study B: studying C: studied 2: There are four _____of students. A: types B: tips C: tyres 3: What does success _____to you. A: mean B: meaning C: meant 4: In real life we find that sometimes we can_____ourselves by telling white lies.. A: answer B: justify C: just 5: He has the _____to bring out the best in others. A: ability B: academic C: actually 6: At her 90th birthday party, Grandma was ______ by family and friends. A: dab B: surrounded C: dropout 7: They _____in price from 3$ to 5$. A: foster B: sink C: range 8: Many of them remained _____and resentful. A: sullen B: review C: withdraw 9: If you put something _____you delay doing it. A: off B: out C: down 10: _______size is concerned, this bike is fine —I don’t like the other one’s though. A: As far as B: As long as C: As fast as 11: What are you going to do_____the future? A: in B: on C: at 12: Nothing in the world can_____the place of persistence . A: take B: like C: read 13: His mother’s death has been_____on him. A: hard B: meaning C: meant 14: If you _____somthing you touch it several times using quick, light movements. A: dab B: assure C: exclaim 15: Most of us are very worried_____the future of our planet. A: for B: about C: in Part two: Fill in the blanks with the proper forms of the verbs given in the brackets. 用动词的正确形式填空（2 0分） 16: There are various _________of students in every school. (type) 17: The students are _________ by a need to work hard. (motivate) 18: I ___________ a driver for many years. (be) 19: A smaller number of parents send messages, _________advice on success. (seek) 20: Education should _____ broad. (be) 21: The third type _______ the foolish but diligent students. (be) 22: _______, there are the neither smart nor diligent students. (final)
XX职业技术学院 2015—2016学年第二学期经济与管理系 2015级三年制会计、会审、旅游管理、物流管理专业 《大学英语》期末考试试题A卷 考试说明：本课程为闭卷考试，可携带文具（或课程为开卷考试可携带文具和资料） I Translate the following English versions into Chinese. 20% 1. 一种文化符号 2. 一则电视广告 3. 时尚和潮流的区别 4. 一个被灌输的概念 5. 自信满满 6. plus 14 percent annual interest 7. Follow your passion, not money 8. the opportunity to get to know yourself 9. all-too-familiar glow on his face 10. the driving directions he gave us II Everyday % (Identify the answer is right or wrong：If the answer is right , you should “A”, if not, choose “B”. ) 1、------Do you like your present job as a secretary -------I’m a nurse in No. 1 hospital. A. Right B. Wrong 2、------Nice to meet you! ------Nice to meet you too. A. Right B. Wrong 3、------Are you the fresh year student in the college ------Yes, I am. A. Right B. Wrong 4、------Can I bring you something to drink at the moment ------Yes, a coca-cola for me, please. A. Right B. Wrong 5、------Have you ever been to America for some reason ------I have never been there, but I hope to go there in the future. A. Right B. Wrong 6、------Is there a bank of China near here ------I saw him this morning. A. Right B. Wrong 7、------Can you remember the doctor’s phone number ------Yes, it’s 6821215. A. Right B. Wrong 8、------Can I help you, Sir ------Yes, I’d like to book a single room for 2 days. A. Right B. Wrong 9、------How do you like the book you are reading recently ------It’s very good. And I like it very much. A. Right B. Wrong 10、------What about seeing a film tonight ------See you later. A. Right B. Wrong III、Reading comprehension 15% Passage A I was having dinner at a restaurant when Harry came in. Harry worked in a lawyer’s office years ago, but h e is now working at a bank. He gets a good salary, but he always borrows money from his friends and never pays
诚信应考 考出水平 考出风格 浙江大学城市学院 2012— 2013学年第二学期期末考试试卷 《时间序列分析》 开课单位：计算学院 ；考试形式：闭卷；考试时间：2013年7月7日； 所需时间：120分钟 一．简答和计算题(本大题共9题，第1到5题每题5分，第6到9题每题7分，共53分。) 1. 写出(,,)ARIMA p d q 模型的结构。 2. 写出(,)ARMA p q 模型的传递形式和格林函数的递推式。 3. 写出(,)ARMA p q 模型的逆转形式和逆函数的递推式。 第1页共5页
4.计算模型120.5t t t t x x x ε--=--+的偏自相关系数。 5.判断模型121 0.80.5 1.1t t t t t x x x εε---=-++-的平稳性与可逆性。 6. 对于(1)AR 模型： 11()t t t x x μφμε--=-+，根据t 个历史观察值数据： ,10.1,9,6，已求 出?10μ=，1?0.3φ=，29εσ=，求： （1）之后3期的预测值及95%置信区间。 （2）假定获得新的观察值数据为110.5 t x +=，求之后2期的预测值及95%置信区间。 第2页共5页
7.已知某地区每年常住人口数量近似服从(3)MA 模型（单位：万人）： 21231000.80.60.2,25t t t t t x εεεεεσ---=+-+-= 最近3年的常住人口数量及一步预测数量如下： 年份 统计人数 预测人数 2002 104 110 2003 108 100 2004 105 109 请预测未来5年该地区常住人口的95%置信区间。 8. 使用指数平滑法得到 ?5t x =， 2? 5.26t x +=，已知序列观察值 5.25 t x =， 1 5.5 t x +=，求指数 平滑系数α。 9. 某一10期观察值序列为5.43, 6.19, 6.63, 7.18, 8.95, 10.14, 11.74, 12.60, 17.26, 21.07 （1）使用6期移动平均法预测12?x 。 （2）使用指数平滑法确定12?x ，其中平滑系数为0.4α= 第3页共5页
Part 3 V ocabulary and Structure 1. If you jump on an IPO, hoping it will go up, it's a bit like betting on a racehorse. I mean, ______________ it doesn't go up? A. how if B. what if C. how about D. what about 2. Online share trading has totally changed the stock market and the lives of investors. ______________ the Internet and be your own broker! A. Connect B. Link C. Hook up to D. Hook over 3. ______________ about $500, you can open an account and begin buying and selling shares from your own home, 24 hours a day. A. For B. To C. In D. At 4. The days of dot-com fortunes from IPOs are ______________. A. across B. Up C. above D. over 5. The problem with you is that you've ______________ too many classes. A. skipped B. skipped over C. skipped across D. skipped through 6. If a company wants to be listed on the stock exchange, it has to ______________ certain requirements. A. satisfy with B. be satisfied with C. meet D. meet with 7. To be listed on the New York Stock Exchange last year, a company had to have issued at least a million shares of stock ______________ $16 million. A. worth B. worth of C. be worth D. being worth of 8. I'm sorry, but you can't short your 1,500 shares of ABC at $155. The last trade __________ $99. A. went through B. went across with C. went across at D. went through at 9. I won't recommend any specific stock. You have to make the decision ______________. A. by your own B. on your own C. for you D. by you 10. After you bought a stock that was already very low, it may continue to drop. In that case you will lose your ______________. A. shares B. pants C. shirt D. skirt 11. To make money, you have to ______________. A. seize with opportunities B. grasp for opportunities C. make chances D. take chances 12. I'm not ______________ a gambler. I don't want to risk my money in the stock market. A. much of B. a lot of C. very D. very much 13. You probably want to stick to blue chip stocks for a guaranteed ______________ your investment. A. report for B. release from C. report on D. return on Part 3答案：B CA DA CA DB CD AD