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Causal (mis)understanding and the search for scientific explanations a case study from the

Causal (mis)understanding and the search for scientific explanations a case study from the
Causal (mis)understanding and the search for scientific explanations a case study from the

Causal (mis)understanding and the search for scientific explanations: a case study from the history of medicine

Leen De Vreese

Centre for Logic and Philosophy of Science

Ghent University

Blandijnberg 2

B-9000 Ghent

Belgium

Leen.DeVreese@UGent.be

Abstract

In 1747, James Lind carried out an experiment which proved the usefulness of citrus fruit as a cure for scurvy. Nonetheless, he rejected the earlier hypothesis of Bachstrom that the absence of fresh fruit and vegetables was the only cause of the disease. I explain why it was rational for James Lind not to accept Bachstrom’s explanation. I argue that it was the urge for scientific understanding that guided Lind in his rejection and in the development of his alternative theory that humidity was the primary cause of the disease. Central in this process was the search for causal mechanisms which could provide understanding of how the disease developed and which fitted in with the knowledge of the time. Given that the relevant background knowledge and statistical methods were not yet available to Lind, he was right to prefer his own explanation to that of Bachstrom. Although his explanation turned out to be wrong, and Bachstrom’s right, from a historical point of view it offered deeper causal understanding of both the development of the disease and the preventive and curative effects of fresh vegetable food. This case study illustrates how the search for causal mechanisms can not only be enlightening, but also very misleading.

Keywords: causal explanation; scientific understanding; history of medicine; James Lind; causal mechanisms

1. Introduction

James Lind is a celebrated name in the history of research into scurvy. He is best-known for the experiment he carried out in 1747 to examine some recommended treatments for scurvy. This experiment proved the usefulness of lemons and oranges as a cure and is often cited as the first controlled experimental trial in clinical science. Despite his finding, Lind did not regard the absence of citrus fruit from the diet as the primary cause of scurvy, an explanation which was nevertheless already defended by his predecessor J. F. Bachstrom. As a consequence, his research into the causes of the disease is traditionally seen as much less innovative. In a recent joint paper (Weber & De Vreese, 2005), Erik Weber and I argued that this traditional view is not justified and that Lind was as modern in his research into the causes of scurvy as he was in his research into its cures: both exhibit progressive scientific thinking by carefully

observing differences between an experimental and a control group, albeit that in both cases the prospective design suffers from similar and serious shortcomings when compared to contemporary standards.

The work of Lind will be central in this paper as well. I build further on the point of view advanced in Weber & De Vreese (2005). I explain why it was a rational choice of James Lind not to accept Bachstrom’s explanation.

I maintain that scientific understanding plays a vital role in the search for and acceptance of causal explanations. It was precisely the urge to understanding that guided Lind in his reluctance to accept the absence of citrus fruit as the cause and in the development of his alternative theory. Central in this process was the search for causal mechanisms which could provide understanding of how the disease developed and which fitted in with the knowledge of the time.

In section 2, I go deeper into the case study and analyze the argumentation of Bachstrom and Lind respectively. In section 3, I present two negative opinions on Lind’s work. Both William Dock (2003[1953]) and Michael Bartholomew (2002) maintain that it was irrational of Lind to be unwilling to accept the results of his 1747 experiment, which confirmed Bachstrom’s hypothesis. Following these sections, I reinterpret the historical example in terms of causal understanding to demonstrate that Dock and Bartholomew are wrong in their conclusions and employ anachronistic reasoning. In section 4, I shed light on the dual nature of causal mechanisms. I explain how causal mechanisms as inner causal indicators (showing how the cause leads to the effect) form an important confirmatory tool for causal relations hypothesized on the basis of outer causal indicators (such as regularities, counterfactual dependencies and correlations, which merely indicate the naked cause-effect relation). This way, mechanisms lead to explanatory coherence. The other side of the coin is that overconfidence in certain wrongly identified mechanisms can lead to causal

mis understanding by enhancing explanatory coherence in an improper way. The theoretical approach of section 4 serves as a framework for the subsequent reinterpretation of the case study in section 5. Contrary to Dock (2003 [1953]) and Bartholomew (2002), I argue that Lind was indeed very anxious to understand the development of scurvy and had therefore good reasons to reject Bachstrom’s hypothesis. He was trying very hard to uncover the mechanisms leading to scurvy, but because the relevant background knowledge was not yet available, his search led him to causal mis understanding of the disease. What Dock and Bartholomew fail to see is that one has to look at the case study from the perspective of those earlier days. Firstly, people in Lind’s time had not the slightest background knowledge about the influence of nutritional deficiencies. Secondly, statistical methods were lacking. Keeping this in mind, it becomes clear that - from a historical point of view - Lind’s own explanation was indeed preferable to Bachstrom’s. At that point in history, Lind’s explanation offered deeper causal understanding of both the development of the disease as well as the preventive and curative effects of fresh vegetable food.

My goal in writing this paper is twofold. Primarily, I wish to correct an anachronistic reading of Lind apparently agreed upon in the literature on the history of medicine. Additionally, the case of Lind offers an historical example of the strength and weakness of reasoning with causal mechanisms. By means of this example I wish to qualify the significance for explanation and scientific understanding which has

recently increasingly been ascribed to causal mechanisms at the expense of outer causal indicators. Since, as the case study demonstrates, the search for causal mechanisms can not only be enlightening, but also very misleading.

2. Bachstrom and Lind on scurvy

In this section, I present a short analysis of the ideas and argumentation of two 18th century authors on the causes of scurvy: J.F. Bachstrom and James Lind.

2.1. The explanation of Bachstrom

In a time when there was no agreement at all about the causes of scurvy and a lot of possible causes were proposed, Bachstrom claimed in 1734:

this evil is solely owing to a total abstinence from fresh vegetable food and

greens; which is alone the true primary cause of the disease. (Stewart &

Guthrie, 1953, pp. 314)

He argued for this hypothesis on the basis of a collection of anecdotal and historical arguments, chief of which was the blockade of Thorn (Torun, Poland) in the summer of 1703, where the besieging Swedes remained healthy while many thousands of inhabitants and soldiers inside the city developed scurvy. Bachstrom supposed this could only be explained by the shortage of fresh fruit and vegetables inside the city. A close examination of Bachstrom’s arguments allows us to conclude the following:

1. Bachstrom bases his hypothesis on regularities he did not observe himself, but which were filtered out of various historical and anecdotal narratives.

2. Bachstrom offers us no explanation of how the absence of fresh fruit and vegetables leads to the illness, although such a causal relation was not at all self-evident in his time.

3. In addition, Bachstrom provides no general overarching theory which unifies his hypothesis with contemporary knowledge on the causation of diseases, a lack for which he was in fact criticized at the time. As Carpenter argues:

Bachstrom’s treatise seems to the modern reader a straightforward argument

and one that deserved at least a serious consideration. But to the contemporary main-line physician it would not have been very impressive because it dealt

with a single disease in isolation and did nothing toward establishing a view of the nature of disease in general - an ideal which the medical profession had as its goal, by analogy with the universal laws being developed by the physicists at that time. (Carpenter, 1986, pp. 44-45)

4. Nonetheless, Bachstrom was right that the absence of fruit and vegetables in the diet causes scurvy.

2.2. The explanation of Lind

James Lind, contemporary of Bachstrom and the most celebrated name in the history of scurvy, is well-known for an experiment regarding its cure, carried out during a scurvy outbreak on board the Salisbury in 1747. In the literature on the history of medicine, this experiment by the naval surgeon is generally regarded as the first controlled trial in clinical science1. The design of the experiment was described by Lind himself as follows:

On the 20th of May 1747, I took twelve patients in the scurvy, on board the

Salisbury at sea. Their cases were as similar as I could have them. They all in

general had putrid gums, the spots and lassitude, with weakness of their knees.

They lay together in one place, being a proper apartment for the sick in the

fore-hold; and had one diet common to all, ... Two of these were ordered each

a quart of cider a-day. Two others took twenty-five gutts of elixir vitriol three

times a-day, upon an empty stomach; using a gargle strongly acidulated with it for their mouths. Two others took two spoonfuls of vinegar three times a-day, upon an empty stomach; having their gruels and their other food well

acidulated with it, as also the gargle for their mouth. Two of the worst patients, with the tendons in the ham rigid, (a symptom none of the rest had), were put

under a course of sea-water. Of this they drank half a pint every day, and

sometimes more or less as it operated, by way of gentle physic. Two others

had each two oranges and one lemon given them every day. These they eat

[sic] with greediness, at different times, upon an empty stomach. They

continued but six days under this course, having consumed the quantity that

could be spared. The two remaining patients, took the bigness of a nutmeg

three times a-day, of an electuary recommended by an hospital-surgeon ... ;

using for common drink [a tamarind decoction]. (Stewart & Guthrie, 1953, pp.

145-146)

After two weeks, he observed the following effects:

...the most sudden and visible good effects were perceived from the use of the oranges and lemons; one of those who had taken them, being at the end of six

days fit for duty. ... The other was the best recovered of any in his condition ...

Next to the oranges, I thought the cider had the best effects. It was indeed not

very sound,... however, those who had taken it, were in a fairer way of

recovery than the others at the end of the fortnight ... As to the elixir of vitriol,

I observed that the mouths of those who had used it by way of gargarism, were

in a much cleaner and better condition than many of the rest, especially those

who used the vinegar; but perceived otherwise no good effects from its

internal use upon the other symptoms ... There was no remarkable alteration

upon those who took the electuary and tamarind decoction, the sea-water, or

vinegar upon comparing their condition at the end of the fortnight, with others who had taken nothing but a little lenitive electuary and cremor tartar, at

times, in order to keep their belly open; or a gentle pectoral in the evening, for relief of their breast. (Stewart & Guthrie, 1953, pp. 146-148)

1 To list just some authors making this claim: Stewart & Guthrie (1953), Thomas (1969, 1997), Wyatt (1976), Watt (1985), Mellinkoff (1995). A more subtle view on the extent to which Lind was a practitioner of experimental science, but nonetheless largely in agreement with the general opinion on the progressiveness of Lind’s thinking in his experiment, can be found in Hughes (1975).

Although Lind determined by means of this experiment the best cure for scurvy, he did not consider the absence of citrus fruit as the main cause of the development of scurvy. On the contrary, in the rest of his Treatise he constructed a theory to support the hypothesis that the primary cause of scurvy was a humid atmosphere. He refers to the blocked perspiration theory to support this causal relation:

The body is made mainly of solid tissues and fluids. The fluids naturally tend

to become corrupted. An important function of all the excretions, and

especially of perspiration, is to evacuate these corrupted fluids from the body

to keep only some healthy fluids inside. If the perspiration is blocked, the

corrupted fluids act as a poison and produce some diseases. One can fight

against the poisonous effect of the corrupted fluids by eating fruit whose

acidity acts as a detergent. (Corruble & Ganascia, 1997, pp. 217)

The idea that the skin was a major route of excretion of undesirable humors and vapors from the body, and that this happened through “insensible perspiration”, dates back to Galen (131-201) and even Hippocrates (ca. 460-377 BC), and was further developed by Sanctorius (1561-1636) (Renbourn, 1960; Carpenter, 1986). The conviction that suppressed or obstructed insensible perspiration was a cause of disease in general can also be traced back to the physicians of classical periods:

Many physicians of classical periods (Asclepiades, Themison, Soranus, etc.)

accepted the so-called ‘Methodist’ theory of ‘strictum et laxum’ (tightening or loosening of atoms, corpuscles, pores or ducts); and there is frequent reference in the old literature to fevers and inflammations, and to disease in general,

arising from the superficial or deep pores being too wide or narrow,

asymmetric or kinked, clogged by the action of astringent drugs or cold air,

and by excretions too profuse or too thick to pass out. (Renbourn, 1960, pp.

136)

These ideas recurred in different forms during the following centuries, with Sanctorius as their most important proponent. Throughout the centuries, cold air and damp were often cited among the most important reasons for the obstruction of insensible perspiration. These ideas still strongly influenced the medical minds of Lind’s time. Furthermore, the eighteenth century was an extremely important period in the development of Sanctorius’ ideas on the suppression of perspiration: “Throughout Europe it became fashionable to write dissertations on suppressed

‘perspiration’ and the part it played in various diseases” (Renbourn, 1960, pp. 142). Around 1750, all kinds of diseases, such as cholera and various fevers, were being explained by means of blocked perspiration. Even in the nineteenth century, obstructed insensible perspiration was still cited as the cause of many diseases, including scurvy. (Renbourn, 1960; Carpenter 1986).

Consequently, it does not need to come as a surprise that Lind’s theory on the cause of scurvy was based on blocked perspiration as well. Lind supposed two mechanisms linked moisture to blocked perspiration. Primarily, moisture was supposed to constrict the pores of the skin leading to corrupted fluids in the body. Additionally, moisture was supposed to weaken the spring and elasticity of the air, while pure air was necessary for assisting the lungs in converting crude chyle into blood. In other words, moisture was simply unfit for salutary purposes. Consequently, Lind advised that the

way to prevent the development of scurvy was to counter humidity.

A closer look at Lind’s arguments leads me to the following conclusions: (1) Lind bases his hypothesis on regularities partially observed by himself on board the Salisbury; (2) Lind offers an explanation on how moisture leads to scurvy; (3) Lind’s explanation fits in a general overarching theory, which was at the time accepted as the basis for the explanation of several diseases; (4) Lind offers an explanation of the results of the Salisbury experiment as well: lemons and oranges block the causal mechanism that leads from moist air to scurvy; (5) Lind’s explanation was nonetheless wrong.

3. Recent opinions on the Lind case

In the previous section, I summarized the central elements of the case study. Before going on with my evaluation of the historical example, I cast an eye over some recent opinions on Lind’s work. As the reader will see, these opinions are none too flattering.

In an editorial article of 1953 in the American Journal of Clinical Nutrition - republished in 2003 in the same journal (Dock, 2003) - William Dock compared the scurvy case with atherosclerosis and the effects of excessive dietary cholesterol. The article bears the title: ‘The reluctance of physicians to admit that chronic disease may be due to faulty diet’. In it, Dock complained about the fact that physicians do not easily accept certain causes of diseases for which there is overwhelming evidence from perceived regularities and statistical correlations but no clarifying theory. He noted that while Bachstrom clearly described the cause of scurvy in 1743 and while Lind recommended lemon juice as the best cure in 1754, it took a couple of decades - and most significantly the discovery of the role of vitamin C - before the lack of fresh fruit and vegetables was accepted as the cause by the medical community. Dock argued that the story of scurvy was at that time being reenacted in the history of atherosclerosis and excessive dietary cholesterol. While there was in 1953 clearly a lot of evidence of a correlation between the two, there was as yet no explanation, and the medical community was still reluctant to accept a causal relation between them. Dock’s plaintive conclusion - that physicians have “always hated to accept any theory ascribing chronic disease to bad food” (Dock, 2003, pp. 1345) - clearly supposes that such reluctance is anyhow irrational.

In a recent volume of the Journal for Maritime Research, Michael Bartholomew wrote an article with the promising title: ‘James Lind and Scurvy: a Revaluation’(Bartholomew, 2002). However, in this article the same kind of complaints about the “resistance” of Lind to the idea of dietary deficits as the cause of scurvy reappear. Bartholomew complains about a tension in Lind’s Treatise of the Scurvy between, on the one hand, what is taken as convincing evidence resulting from his experiment with oranges and lemons, and, on the other hand, the remainder of Lind’s research. In his own words:

The link between, on one hand, his experiments with oranges and lemons, and, on the other, his programme of recommendations not only for the prevention

and cure of scurvy, but for the general amelioration of shipboard life, is

extremely tenuous. In rhetorical terms, the Salisbury experiments are given no especial prominence, either in the chapter or in the Treatise as a whole. The

eighteenth century readers of the Treatise who did not single out the Salisbury

experiments as the central, decisive feature of the Treatise were not willfully

misreading the book. There is a real confusion in the text and it arises

chiefly from Lind’s inability, or reluctance, to integrate his experimental

findings with his prior general theory of digestion and with his particular theory of what happens to the body when it is suffering from scurvy. He

never, as it were, clears his throat and declares to the reader the exact

significance of the experiments. (Bartholomew, 2002, pp. 4) (my bold)

Just like Dock, Bartholomew refers to Bachstrom, who in his view too had already convincingly argued before Lind that a lack of fresh vegetable food was the cause of scurvy. For both, this observation constitutes an extra reason for criticizing Lind’s “unwillingness”.

I do not think the comments of William Dock and Michael Bartholomew are justified. Their talk in terms of “unwillingness” and “reluctance” insinuates that Lind exhibited an irrational - and hence unacceptable - obstinacy in his refusal to accept the scientific results of his experiment. In my opinion, it was not at all a matter of unwillingness or stubbornness, but rather proof of Lind’s single-minded dedication (his extreme willingness) to achieving a thorough scientific insight into the causation of the disease. If he had taken the evidence of the experiment at face value, an inference to the best explanation could have led him to accept the conclusion of Bachstrom. However, this would not have provided him with any deeper insight into the causal mechanisms leading up to the disease, something which is, after all, lacking in Bachstrom. One should not confuse here the appreciation of an influencing factor on the basis of a controlled experiment with a thorough scientific explication of the mechanisms involved and the ensuing understanding thereof. Without loosing sight of the former, it was precisely the latter which Lind tried to reach. A reinterpretation of the case study in terms of causal understanding will further clarify my point of view.

4. Theoretical framework on causal understanding

In section 5, I reinterpret Lind’s work in comparison with Bachstrom’s in terms of causal understanding and its relation to causal mechanisms. In this section, I first introduce the reader to my view on the ‘dual nature’ of causal mechanisms and their somewhat special place in the list of ‘causal indicators’2. Since none of the accounts of causation has been proved to be the obviously correct univocal account, I regard different theories of causation as complementary rather than competing. Different accounts seem to have different strengths and weaknesses. In this paper, I focus on the strength and weakness of causal mechanisms. While their strength is well-known, their weakness is underexposed in the literature.

2 These indicators can be counterfactual (in)dependencies, correlations, mechanisms, regularities, etc. I borrow the term ‘causal indicators’ from Williamson (2006), because it nicely captures the idea that all these approaches to causation can be accepted as tools that can form an indication of the presence of a causal relation, without needing to select one of them as the single appropriate approach.

4.1. What are causal mechanisms?

Le me first explain what exactly I mean by the word ‘mechanism’. Various scholars have recently proposed diverse definitions of ‘causal mechanism’ (a.o. Glennan, 1996; Bunge, 1997; Thagard, 1999; Machamer et al., 2000; Ahn, 2000; Glennan, 2002; Woodward, 2002; Tabery, 2004; Steel, 2004; Bogen, 2005). The preferred definition is often heavily dependent on the domain one is reasoning from. Nonetheless, in these definitions some properties recur in varying combinations.

First, most writers emphasize in one way or another that a mechanism is situated at an organizational level underlying the level at which cause and effect occur. I agree that this is an important defining property. Hence, the elements referred to in the explaining mechanism must form components in the complex organization of the systems referred to in cause and effect. Carl Craver (2001; 2002) talks about

‘mechanistic levels’ in this context. Another way to explain this is to refer to the hierarchical organization of mechanisms, in that mechanisms refer to the organizational parts of a more complex system whose changes and activities they explain. Secondly, the definition of a ‘mechanism’ is often based on the analogy with the working of machines. Although this analogy can be clarifying, this kind of definition is often heavily influenced by the original concept of mechanism of e.g. Descartes. Adhering too closely to this analogy results in too narrow a view of what a causal mechanism can consist of, especially in the social and behavioral sciences, where it does not always tally. Another property often referred to in definitions of

‘causal mechanism’ is the regularity of the process described by the mechanism. However, since a mechanism is a very local description of what happens between cause and effect, it is not necessary to presuppose that the chain of events incorporated occurs with any particular regularity. Even though it is in fact often possible to generalize the mechanism to similar cause-effect chains, it can also function as an explanation of a single case or explain a deviance from an expected causal process. Hence, the presupposition of regularity is not a general characteristic of causal mechanisms. Furthermore, for those mechanisms which do operate with great regularity, this property has no bearing on the insights provided by the content of the mechanism itself. All this is clearly argued for in Bogen (2005). Consequently, it is also unnecessary to refer to causal laws in a definition of ‘mechanism’, as Glennan (1996) did in his first definition, though not in his second (Glennan, 2002).

Some of the properties ascribed to causal mechanisms can be characteristic of the kind of mechanisms sought for in certain domains of science, but may not be in others. As Bogen further argues, “principled decisions about what qualifies as a causally productive activity which can contribute to the production of the effect of interest depend largely on local, historically variable constraints which rest upon contingent, empirically testable beliefs which develop historically (Bogen, forthcoming, pp. 24-25)”.

Since I wish to cover all possible kinds of mechanisms, I define a causal mechanism very broadly as: ‘the process at an organizational level underlying cause and effect, by means of which the cause brings about the effect’. The term ‘process’ in this definition can refer to any kind of natural development, chain of interactions, or chain of actions and reactions, leading to the effect. The definition is in keeping with the recent literature on causal mechanisms, but, on the other hand, it attempts to be as

general as possible in order not to make the mistake of narrowing down the definition to just one kind of mechanism typical of some limited domain of application.

4.2. Causal mechanisms as special indicator

Now, what makes causal mechanisms differ from the other causal indicators? I discern three properties of causal mechanisms which entitle them to their special status.

4.2.1. Side effects versus inside/insight information

First of all, the other indicators are like side effects or consequences of the presence of the causal relationship and are only indicating the fact that something is happening “in there”. They just point to the causes of an effect to explain it, but tell nothing more about the cause-effect relation itself. Because of this, I will call them “outer causal indicators”. Mechanisms, on the other hand, complete the explanation, precisely by indicating what is going on between the cause and the effect, or in other words, wherein the causal relation ‘consists’. A mechanism is hence an “inner causal indicator”. It is further the only causal indicator which can provide deeper insight into the workings of the causal relation. This is recognized by most authors writing on causal mechanisms. Some further conclude from this that outer causal indicators simply can’t give a causal explanation (e.g. Bogen, 2005). I would rather claim that they provide another kind of causal explanation, which gives us some, but not deep, insight into the causal relation involved. Hence when available, mechanisms provide another kind of causal explanation resulting in a deeper kind of understanding. Because of this property, the importance of mechanisms for causal reasoning, causal explanation and causal understanding is stressed by psychologists as well (Ahn et al., 1995; Koslowski, 1996; Ahn & Kalish, 2000). Belief in a mechanism results in understanding the causal relation. This can concern the belief of a single person or of a whole scientific community.

4.2.2. Complementarity with all versus complementarity with mechanisms only

Mechanisms are in a special way complementary with all the outer indicators, and it is useful to combine different strategies. Furthermore, psychologists have carried out experiments that prove the major heuristic role of mechanisms in people’s actual search for causes (Ahn et al., 1995; Koslowski, 1996). Mechanisms can complement the information from the outer indicators in three ways.

First, they can confirm the existence of possible causal relations supposed to be present on the basis of an outer indicator. Hence a mechanism can help as a confirmative tool with respect to the outer indicators. Secondly, when a causal connection between two variables is supposed, but no plausible mechanism can be found that elucidates this connection, we may be confronted with a spurious or a coincidental relation. In this case the mechanism works as a disconfirming tool with respect to the evidence from other indicators. Thirdly, a hypothetical mechanism points to possible causes that can be (dis)confirmed by other indicators. In this case, mechanisms work as a heuristic tool for the generation of hypotheses which are then further testable on the basis of the outer indicators. As Thagard points out, these characteristics constitute three ways in which mechanisms can enhance the

explanatory coherence of causal explanations. (Thagard, 1999; Ahn & Kalish, 2000)

It may be clear by now that causal mechanisms can in a systematic way complete the knowledge resulting from the application of other causal theories. This potential does not hold for the other indicators. There is no outer indicator that systematically and in a clear way completes the information of all other indicators. This is of course related to the former point: mechanisms complete the story by adding inside/insight information to the naked information of cause and effect delivered by the outer indicators, while the outer indicators are diverse ways to try to capture the same kind of naked cause-effect relations. This complementarity can further explain why the idea of causal mechanisms is often spontaneously linked to regularities. But as pointed out above, the idea of a causal regularity forms no essential part of the idea of a causal mechanism (Bogen, 2005).

4.2.3. Form versus content

This last point of difference is also connected to the former two. We can say that, while the other indicators point to the “form” of the causal relation and are therefore immune to changes in causal background knowledge, causal mechanisms are the only indicators which are content dependent, and hence intimately bound to background knowledge. This feature is on the one hand related to the advantage of providing deeper insight, as generally recognized and explained above, but on the other hand, it brings with it the risk of causal mis understanding. The latter is much less recognized in the philosophical literature on causal mechanisms. Only Machamer et al. explicitly claimed that:

Mechanism descriptions show how possibly, how plausibly, or how actually

things work. Intelligibility arises not from an explanation’s correctness, but

rather from an elucidative relation between the explanans … and the

explanandum … Protein synthesis can be elucidated by reference to Gamow

holes. The ability of nerves to conduct signals can be rendered intelligible by

reference to their internal vibrations. Neither of these explanations is correct;

yet each provides intelligibility by showing how the phenomena might

possibly be produced. (Machamer et al., 2000, pp. 21).

I maintain that generally accepted background knowledge forms the framework for the provision of scientific understanding. It defines the knowledge space within which scientists search for an explanatory mechanism. The ideas of someone reasoning outside such a conviction-giving framework and hence developing his own understanding on the basis of deviating mechanisms will not be easily accepted. Giving up such a coherent framework in which scientists strongly believe means giving up a lot of certainties. One will not be easily convinced to make this step when no clear alternative is available, which is reasonable pragmatic behavior.

4.3. Causal mechanisms as double-edged tool: explanatory coherence versus overconfidence

As a tentative conclusion, I can state that causal mechanisms form a double-edged tool. On the one hand, they are the only causal indicators that can provide us with inside information of the causal relation. They are thus a useful tool for providing

confirmatory information for causal relations conjectured on the basis of outer causal indicators. They strengthen confidence in causal judgments by enhancing explanatory coherence and they lead to deeper causal understanding. On the other hand, we risk biases that result from overconfidence in certain mechanisms fitting in our background knowledge but nonetheless wrongly conjectured to underpin the causal relation under consideration. This other side of the coin is often forgotten or underestimated by philosophers of science defending the importance and privilege of causal mechanisms for causality and causal reasoning.

I discern two ways in which mechanisms can lead to causal misunderstanding. First, a causal relation can be conjectured on the basis of a wrongly identified causal mechanism, but not supported by outer causal indicators. In this case it seems quite easy for a good researcher to find out that his conjecture is wrong. This demonstrates again the usefulness of complementary approaches. Secondly, a causal relation can previously be established by an outer indicator, and afterwards seem to be confirmed by a causal mechanism which is nonetheless not at work. In this case a researcher operating within a fixed scientific community, and holding on to a certain background knowledge where the hypothesized mechanism seems to fit in, will not so easily be convinced of the contrary. This results from the confidence offered by the, for him, plausible mechanism. Koslowski (1996) has demonstrated that people are indeed not easily convinced of the disconfirmation of a mechanism believed in - even when there is underpinning covariational evidence that the causal relation does not hold - as long as no plausible alternatives are at their disposal. This is of course no justification for similar behavior in a scientific context. Available disconfirming evidence is supposed to be taken seriously. But it nonetheless shows the confirmative power of a mechanism in which there is strong belief. It is clear that this confirmative power can form a stumbling block in science as well, viz. when a wrongly identified explanatory mechanism fitting in the general accepted knowledge of a scientific community - possibly incorrect as well - seems to confirm a rightly conjectured causal relation. It shows a clear drawback of reasoning with mechanisms, namely that they can enhance explanatory coherence in an improper way by confirming a causal relation by means of a wrongly identified, but within the (erroneous) dominant background knowledge fitting, mechanism.

After discussing the ways out of these kinds of misunderstanding, we will return to the case of Bachstrom and Lind to illustrate the two sides of the coin of understanding providing causal mechanisms.

4.4. Finding out about causal misunderstanding

Of course there are some ways to find out about our misunderstanding, even in the latter case. But this is often a matter of scientific developments over longer time periods. First, in the course of time, one can find a clear and convincing inconsistency with (a) new (kind of) data. Secondly, empirical research into the supposed underlying mechanism, if possible, can reject the hypothesis. Thirdly, the development of new background knowledge can overthrow the analysis conducted in terms of the older background knowledge. Fourthly, as Schurz and Lambert (1994) point out: causal mechanisms provide in the first place local understanding of a causal relation. If this seems to conflict afterwards with some more globally unified relevant background knowledge, there is a thorough reason to question the deviant mechanism

proposed. But as the four of these demonstrate, it is not easy to prevent causal misunderstanding in a systematic way. It is above all a matter of development over time.

5.Reinterpretation of the historical example in terms of causal understanding

In this section, I re-examine the case of Lind and Bachstrom from within the theoretical framework proposed above. Contrary to Dock (2003 [1953]) and Bartholomew (2002), I think Lind had very good reasons to be unwilling or reluctant to regard his experimental findings with respect to citrus fruit as proof that Bachstrom was correct and thus that the absence of fresh fruit and vegetables was the cause of scurvy. In my view, Lind did not accept this explanation precisely because he was so willing to acquire deep understanding of the mechanisms involved in the development of the disease - much more than Bachstrom was. And I even claim that Lind, from a historical point of view, actually achieved a much better understanding of the disease than Bachstrom, although we know now that Bachstrom was right and Lind wrong.

5.1. Lind’s search for deep understanding

Given the following facts, it was rational for Lind not to accept Bachstrom’s explanation and hence to be reluctant to accept a faulty diet as the cause of scurvy.

On the one hand, Lind had evidence undermining the causal relation between the lack of fresh greens and scurvy. Firstly, Lind had some counterexamples to the regularity discerned by Bachstrom. There is his historical counterexample that scurvy was not described by the ancients, despite the fact that they frequently besieged towns with long-lasting blockades. If the disease was due to a lack of fresh vegetable food, one would expect to find some testimonies to the occurrence of the disease at such times.

A more convincing counterexample to the regularity conjectured by Bachstrom came from Lind’s own experience. On a voyage in which he took part, and which sailed through dry areas, nobody developed scurvy, even when none of the seamen had eaten any fresh vegetable food for 3 months. Secondly, as will be further explained in the following section, there was no plausible mechanism on hand to explain how the lack of fruit and vegetables could positively cause the development of scurvy. Hence both the belief in the regularity and in a plausible confirming mechanism for Lind to accept Bachstrom’s explanation was missing.

On the other hand, Lind had several arguments confirming a causal relation between humidity and scurvy which could, furthermore, explain the beneficial influence of fresh fruit and vegetables. Firstly, Lind had confirming evidence of the correlation between humidity and scurvy, partly from his own experience on board the Salisbury. As explained in section 2.2., he was also able to provide some confirming mechanisms which could explain both the influence of humidity on the development of scurvy and the positive influence of consuming fresh vegetable food in preventing and curing the disease. Lastly, the causal mechanisms which he proposed not only provided local causal understanding of the disease but also fitted in a global unifying theory used to explain, amongst others, cholera and numerous fevers, namely the blocked perspiration theory. As argued by Schurz and Lambert (1994), the latter

feature is an important means of yielding understanding. All this convinces us that Lind gained much deeper understanding of the development of the disease from his own explanation than he could ever have gained from Bachstrom’s.

Although Bachstrom saw a clear regularity between the absence of fruit and vegetables in the diet and the development of scurvy, he could not offer any confirmatory causal mechanism underlying this causal relation: the theoretical underpinning for Bachstrom’s explanation that the absence of fresh vegetable food is the direct cause of the disease was not yet available in those days. There was a lack of explanatory coherence with the generally accepted background knowledge of the time and hence he could not provide causal understanding of this causal explanation to his contemporaries, which made his explanation unconvincing.

A thorough understanding of the disease seems to be precisely what Lind was aiming at. Contrary to Bachstrom, Lind tried really hard to incorporate the evidence he received on the basis of his experiment into the knowledge of his time. Since Lind’s mechanisms were perfectly fitting with both the background knowledge and the regularities he had perceived, it is perfectly understandable that Lind was confident with regard to his own explanation. From a historical point of view, Lind was justified to prefer his own explanation, which yielded thorough understanding within the accepted background knowledge, to Bachstrom’s explanation, which merely pointed to a possible cause without providing any scientific understanding at all of how this cause could bring about the effect. Only the subsequent rejection of the background knowledge or the subsequent perception of contradictory regularities could undermine Lind’s point of view. Both were a matter of development over time. Hence, Lind offers us a nice historical example of how causal mechanisms can enhance explanatory coherence in an erroneous way.

5.2. Dock’s and Bartholomew’s anachronistic reading

Given everything we know today, it is of course very easy to castigate Lind for having been unable or reluctant to accept the results of his experiment. The way Lind makes a distinction between the cures and the causes of scurvy is indeed quite strange to us. But we have to try to look at the case from within the knowledge of those earlier days. As Ramberg argues:

despite the fact that over 500 years ago certain foods - particularly citrus fruits - were known to cure scurvy, the disease continued to kill millions. Why? In

part, the efficacy of citrus fruits as a cure was repeatedly questioned when

stored or processed fruit became ineffectual. In addition, people were not

ready to accept the idea that, while citrus fruits might cure scurvy, a lack of

citrus fruits could cause the disease. That is, the concept of a nutritional

deficiency was unknown - not surprising when one remembers the prevalence of Hippocrates’ single-nutrient theory! Consequently, over the 500 years that

scurvy was recognized but not understood, a fascinating array of explanations was proposed… (Ramberg, 2003, pp. 2)

People had not the slightest idea about different nutrients in their food, let alone the idea of a nutritional deficiency disease. As mentioned before, ancient ideas dating back to Hippocrates continued to dominate nutritional thinking until the mid-

nineteenth century. In the following quotation, Hughes describes how George Budd - probably the first author in history to describe scurvy as a nutritional deficiency disease - was strongly opposing mainstream nutritional thought with his ideas in 1842 (almost a century after Lind had been writing about the disease):

Perhaps the most striking feature of Budd’s nutritional thought was the way in which he succeeded in formulating his ideas in an essentially unfavourable –

and possibly an alien – conceptual environment. His concept of accessory

dietary principles and of associated deficiency diseases, stood in almost

complete isolation from the mainstream of mid-nineteenth-century nutritional thought. Many contemporary writers on diet and nutrition still subscribed to

the ‘humoral’ doctrine … Supporters of this theory held that dietary

adjustments were a necessary method for redressing humoral imbalances

within the body. Within this loose conceptual framework it was possible to

think in terms of dietary-engendered diseases and their cure – as in the claim

that ‘veal is not of a heating nature, and may therefore be allowed to febrile

patients in a very weak state.’

But this was a far cry, and qualitatively, involved quite a different approach,

from the concept of deficiency diseases within a framework of rational

physiology. (Hughes, 1973, pp. 13)

Hippocrates and his successors clearly accepted some influence of diet on health, but this was understood in terms of balances and imbalances in the different humors. These ideas on the role of diet as a cure, cannot be interpreted along the lines of our modern notion of a diet, the more since Hippocrates further believed that all foods contained only one nutrient, as Ramberg (2003) indicates. His convictions created a conceptual framework which is obviously totally different from our contemporary nutritional insights. Those naive ideas were nonetheless still accepted during the first half of the nineteenth century. For example, the American surgeon William Beaumont still defended a single-nutrient theory in 1832 (Murray, 2000). However, during this period nutritional thinking made a major advance following the acceptance of William Prout’s discovery in 1827 that food consisted of three major constituents, viz. carbohydrates, fats and proteins (Murray, 2000). For the acceptance of the concept of vitamins, one has to wait till the beginning of the twentieth century. George Budd was a pioneer in these matters, but his ideas were some fifty years ahead of his time, as a result of which his thoughts were not given any serious attention (Hughes, 1973). Thus the English biochemist Frederick Hopkins is regarded as the pioneer in the formulation of the concept of vitamins in 1906, although he did not term them vitamins. He claimed that, next to carbohydrates, fats, proteins and minerals, some other minor substances must be provided through the diet in order to maintain good health, and that a lack of these substances could lead to diseases such as scurvy (Murray, 2000). The world had to wait until 1932 before it was discovered that it was a lack of the vitamin called vitamin C which caused scurvy (Carpenter, 1986; Murray, 2000).

Although Lind was clearly convinced of the beneficial effects of fresh fruit and vegetables in preventing and curing scurvy, there is no reason to believe that he regarded, and even that he could have regarded, scurvy as a nutritional deficiency disease: the conceptual framework which could have provided him understanding of the real mechanisms leading from such a nutritional deficiency to the development of

the disease was entirely lacking, and was only elaborated during the following two centuries. As mentioned in the previous section, he even did not believe in the regularity between the absence of fresh fruit and vegetables and the development of scurvy, as discerned by Bachstrom, and was hence not convinced that fresh fruit and vegetables formed an obligatory part of the diet.

Consequently, it is totally anachronistic to suppose that it should in fact have been a straightforward step for Lind to accept Bachstrom’s explanation just because of the confirming results of his own experiment, as Bartholomew does. According to Carpenter, it would not even have been the main aim of Lind to find the best cure for scurvy by means of the Salisbury experiment, let alone its cause. Rather, he was attempting to demonstrate the inactivity of some officially recommended treatments such as vinegar and sulfuric acid (Carpenter, 1986, pp. 54). Bartholomew’s conclusion that “Lind’s Treatise of the scurvy did not inaugurate an epoch in the understanding of scurvy” (Bartholomew, 2002, pp. 7) is right. But his argument in support of this statement is clearly wrong: he asserts that Lind himself did not gain any understanding of the disease because he gave insufficient attention to his experiment. From our current point of view, in which we have access to contemporary nutritional insights, Lind indeed causally misunderstood the disease. But from the historical point of view, he had deeper understanding of the disease than Bachstrom had. For both of them, the appropriate background knowledge to gain real causal understanding of the disease was missing. Part of the problem of anachronistic readings of Lind is that authors focus their attention on the controlled trial because of the general historical significance ascribed to it in the literature, thereby forgetting the historical setting within which this experiment was carried out. As Baxby (1997) indicates, there was no reason why the controlled trial should be given particular significance at the time it was published. The description of the experiment was short, the trial was small, and the relevant passage could easily be overlooked or ignored by its readers. And above all, it focused on an earlier proposed cure.

Another important historical restriction that we have to keep in mind is that Lind and Bachstrom had no statistical methods at their disposal. It was for them impossible to execute a thorough controlled statistical experiment incorporating multiple variables, of which the resulting causal patterns possess a high degree of probability. They could only base their hypotheses on regularities they thought to discern. Thus Lind founded his rejection of Bachstrom’s hypothesis partly on his own observations, in which he did not perceive supporting regularities for Bachstrom’s thesis. Although better than Bachstrom, who only leant on regularities in anecdotal and historical data, Lind’s explanation as well was based on superficial observations. There was clearly a big risk of bias. It is for that reason that mechanisms were highly important in those days as a tool to confirm hypotheses made on the basis of outer causal indicators.

William Dock overlooks these historical differences. This makes both his point of view with regard to Lind as well as his comparison with research into atherosclerosis anachronistic. Because of a lack of statistical methods, it was a reasonable strategy for Lind to prefer an explanation which could be underpinned by mechanisms providing thorough understanding of how scurvy developed. Statistics had been developed when Dock wrote the editorial article on atherosclerosis. That a lot of physicians were hesitant to accept the relation between excessive dietary cholesterol and atherosclerosis despite a lot of correlative evidence might be inappropriate from a

scientific point of view. Nevertheless, it demonstrates once again the confirmative power of causal mechanisms.

In the end, Lind re-adjusted his convictions in the third edition of the Treatise after being confronted with contradictive regularities. He did not, however, immediately reject the whole theory, which is a comprehensible pragmatic attitude, given that his theory provided him with a good understanding of the disease and no alternative way to understand it was yet available.

6. Conclusions

Causal understanding is not just something we reach at the end of our explanation seeking process. As is clear from the case of Lind, the search for understanding often plays a prominent role in the formation of causal explanations as well, especially when the data from outer causal indicators are rather superficial and hypothetical. As I have argued, searching for mechanisms can not only be very helpful in achieving causal understanding, but can, on the other hand, also be very misleading. The case study presented forms a nice historical illustration of this possible misleading role of understanding providing mechanisms. Notwithstanding the fact that Bachstrom’s explanation is the only acceptable one given our contemporary knowledge, one cannot reproach Lind for having been irrational and incoherent. Given the background knowledge available in his time, Lind’s explanation provided much more explanatory coherence - and provided him consequently with a deeper understanding of the disease - than the explanation of Bachstrom. Now, with the benefit of hindsight, we can see that this explanatory coherence was achieved in the wrong way, which makes it clear to us, today, that Lind was misled by his search for understanding providing causal mechanisms, and that what Lind consequently achieved was in fact deep causal mis understanding.

Acknowledgements

Research for this paper was supported by subventions from the Research Fund of the Ghent University through research project BOF2001/GOA/008. I like to thank Erik Weber and an anonymous referee for their useful comments on earlier drafts of this paper.

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学 校 管 理 信 息 系 统

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