成功交易秘密（Successful trading secrets）
One of the secrets of successful trading is finding a trading system that suits you.
The trading system is not mechanical, suitable for your own personality, a perfect trading ideas, careful market analysis and the whole operation plan, the risk of market winners all have their own trading system, so to find suitable for their own trading system and perfect trading system is their own trading professional investment life almost every day. The one thing to do.
What is a trading system?
Trading system is a complete system of trading rules. For a well-designed trading system, the relevant provisions of investment decisions must be clearly defined. Such a rule must be objective and unique, and no different interpretations are allowed. A well-designed trading system must conform to the user's psychological characteristics, the statistical characteristics of the investment object, and the risk characteristics of the investment funds.
The transaction system is characterized by its integrity and objectivity. It guarantees the reproducibility of the transaction system results. In theory, for any user, if the conditions are exactly the same, the result is the same. The repeatability of the system is the scientific method, and the system trading method belongs to the scientific investment transaction method.
Most investors tend to focus their decision on the analysis and judgment of the market, in fact, this is very biased. Successful investment requires not only correct market analysis, but also correct risk management and correct psychological control. The psychological control between the three is the most important, followed by risk management, and once again the analytical skills, that is, the so-called 3M system (Mind, Money, Market). If you use an analogy to describe, the judgment of the market in the importance of investment behavior accounted for only 1%, most investors ignore what is the decisive factor in investment behavior. Market analysis is the premise of management, only from the correct market analysis, in order to establish a positive expectation value of the trading system, risk management is only in the expected value under the trading system to maximize its effectiveness, and psychological control is the connection between the bridge and the link. If a person's psychological quality is not good, he will often deviate from the correct market analysis methods, instead of objective analysis with subjective wishes, and often deviate from the basic principles of risk management.
If investors in a steady market profit efficiency, must be successfully solve two major problems: 1, how to price fluctuations in highly random seeking non random part; 2, how to effectively control their own psychological weakness, so as not to affect their rational decision. Many investors practice has proved that the trading system in the above two aspects are investors' powerful assistant.
Most investors, when entering the market, do not have a systematic view of the market. Many investors according to a
certain understanding of the market, is one-sided to admit or deny the possibility of a trading idea, in fact they do not know, to think of an objective evaluation method of trading, to confirm the validity of the method in terms of probability statistics. Whether stochastic or non random, the price fluctuations do not have statistical significance, and the effectiveness can only give investors a chance to win locally, and there is no possibility of long-term stability. The design and evaluation methods of trading system can help investors overcome the blindness and unilateralism of the method.
Trading systems can also help investors effectively control risk. Practice has proved that investors who do not use trading systems are difficult to control risk accurately and systematically. Without trading system guidance, it is difficult for investors to quantitatively assess the risk of each approach transaction, and it is difficult to assess the significance of the risk of a single transaction in the overall risk. While the use of the trading system, investors can clearly tell each transaction's expected profit rate, the expected loss amount, the expected maximum expected profit, the number of consecutive losses, expected number of consecutive losses, these are important parameters of investment risk management.
Helping investors effectively overcome their psychological weaknesses may be the biggest function of the trading system. The trading system makes the process of transaction decision more procedural, open and rational. The investor can change from a fuzzy selection process dominated by emotion to a quantitative numerical selection process, that is, to simply judge the response of the signaling system and to perform the
decisions represented by the signal.
Several core connotations of trading system
1: mentality core
In the trading system is not put forward trading stocks period, how to correct the mentality, and do "line with the heart", is the trading system can play the first condition of system trading. If a good trading system, but the mentality impatience, then can not endure short positions or as those soaring but do not know how to control the risk and reasonable intervene, out of control as a trading system,
The failure can not be attributed to the failure of the transaction system program, the failure of attitude led to the failure of the transaction. Therefore, I think that attitude is the most important, determines the success or failure of the trading system.
2: the core of success and failure
Different starting points of capital have different advantages and disadvantages. Such as 1 million and 30 thousand years, as the trading order is the same, but to master the 1 million individual, its earnings targets reduced to 50% years, the income is higher than the 30 thousand doubled many, the requirement of their psychological and technical requirements will be greatly reduced. As a result, different trading systems have been created. 1 million of the individual is likely to value the central trading system, and 30 thousand of the
individual is likely to value short-term trading.
3: technology core
The market profit model three, oversold bounce, high throw bargain hunting, chasing the high strength.
(1) oversold bounce, super, super to what extent will come back? What extent will the bomb fall?
(2) buy low sell high, high, high to what extent is high? Low, low, to what extent is low? Do you inhale or smoke once or twice?
(3) strong, high, strong, what period can chase, what period can not chase? Chase, to what extent can you chase?
Oversold bounce, different people have different basis, then the definition of the super, can be used to realize the historical statistics. For example, the high point drops by more than 60%, and in the form, volume, distribution, and so on, technology has reached the appropriate, then this super, that is, the definition of "must". Historical statistics should be the success rate is very high for, if that is still very low, so this is not over.
Buy low sell high, from the form, the author believes that it should be a product of the channel, to rail, channel out of reach under the rail channel, bargain hunting (in your system using Boolean line operation, but must analyze the whole trend in what state, if in the consolidation trend is a technical analysis indicator, is feasible but obviously if in an upward or downward
trend, the trend line and then use the channel line is a wise choice of application, in order to avoid the use of such a trend in Bollinger oscillating refers to fuzzy or error signal number issued). Under the rail channel are forever in the K, there should be little probability on hunters system signal. The rail channel is always in the line above, there should be a small probability under the escape signal system. With Bollinger with wonderful music Yigong.
Strong chase high, when the index formed intermediate market when only chasing high, this is relatively safe. You can also run high in the down lane, but it depends on historical statistics. In fact, the strong pursuit of high speed is a kind of irrational manipulation. In the period of picking up high, certainly can have the funds in hand, market rise, this part of the funds of transactions, so, if the above two trading system, there is no ta. There is only a difference in speed.
4: control core
In the presence of signals in the trading system, there is a need for money management to reduce the uncertainty (I call risk) to maximum controllability, which is not the content of the technology trading system. Suppose that a technology trading system with a 70% success rate would increase to 80% if it were managed by capital, and the success rate of the technology trading system would be 80%, not 70%.
5: tracking core
During the signal period of the trading system, and transaction
intervention. Is there a possibility that the market trend tracking system will exist? If it exists, it will win immediately. Therefore, a good trading system should also have a good set of trend tracking systems that exist to determine the end of the trend so that profits can be run.
6 core positions:
When the trading system has no signal period, whether we can achieve the positions required psychological quality, a major issue to the success of the transaction system.
As a result, it is clear that the technology trading system is only part of the trading system, not all. When the technology trading system signals, it is not the system that makes decisions, but actually the people make the behavioral decisions in a comprehensive way. A good trading system includes mentality, technology, requirements, patience, control, and so on. Therefore, trading system is a comprehensive analysis system. To determine the right timing, the right choice, the right behavior, and the correct behavior of the decision-making system.
Own trading system
1: transaction flow chart and matters needing attention
2, fund management and Countermeasures
3: index top and bottom analysis method
4: each stock top and bottom analysis method
5: Statistics (compound trading system to control short mind)
6: trading system signal distribution (to control wait state of mind)
Before you say the process, first of all, what is the nature of the stock market? The essence of the stock market is game.
(A) from the people who participate in the stock market, the essence of stock market game is multi game;
B) look at the goals of the participants,
"The essence of the stock market game is two party game", which is short and bullish bearish sell buy Multi game;
(C) the nature of the stock market game is very similar to that of chess. Some people say that the stock market is like chess;
D) to fight straddle both sides and entangled in "different time level", as there is no two exactly the same game, the stock market is the same, the past cannot predict the future, not exactly the same price, there are only "a similar game principle and profit mode".
Establish the overall process of the transaction system, step 1: clear the basis of the trading system";
(A) with the nature of the stock market, we should know the basis
for establishing a trading system;
B) a trading system is the basis of: "in the stock market game environment overall uncertainty, to discover and isolate deterministic factors of price movement, that is to establish a scientific and fair view and correct method of trading their own" theory";
Establish the overall process of the transaction system, step two: "structuring the trading system."";
A) to clear the trading system to overcome the weaknesses of human nature, is the unity of knowledge and action "";
(B) make clear the characteristics of the trading system: integrity and clarity";
(C) the trading system changes over time and the external environment of the securities market; "itself must be able to modify and adjust parameters."";
(D) some basic subsystems of trading system: market judgment, plate trend, risk management, human nature control";
Establish the overall process of the transaction system step three: Inspection trading system"
(A) the inspection trading system includes: statistical tests, extrapolation tests, and actual tests";
(B) consider transaction costs;
C) we should consider the echo effect caused by the amount of funds in the warehouse;
(D) consider the impact of small probability events (statistically fat tails) on trading systems;
Establish the overall process of the transaction system, step four: "the implementation of the trading system."";
(A) daily operation should be subjective and objective; "transaction has basis and desire should be eliminated."";
B) simulation operation is indispensable, even if not trading, still have to carefully read the tape, carefully try to figure out the main idea of complex pupil, brains practice "," the unity of knowledge and ultimately do correctly".
System trading, that is, trading according to a set of trading systems. The time and effort of the system trader is mainly in the development of the trading system. In the stock market, the trend of system traders strategy, elements and the importance of the proportion of the successful development of a trading system, might as well the design is as follows: 10%; range, buy, 5%; 10%; selling point, stop, 20%; 40%; capital management, understanding, insight, strain and innovation of the system. 15%. So, capital management is the most important factor. In the system transaction, the fund management mainly manifests in the following three levels:
1) position. That is, the market value of the stock in the
account (/ stock market capitalization + bond market value + cash) *100%. According to Dow Theory and the many generations of statistics, stock a market of about 75% of the trend is highly correlated with the market. Therefore, according to the market risk factor to determine the position of high and low, should be a good and robust choice. For example, if the current market risk factor is 70%, then the position should be 30%. Of course, the market risk factor is very difficult to judge. Three methods recommended here, a scoring form Taiwan - Bay of Mr. Zhang Songling, the various factors affecting the market list and give weight to design a form, the daily rate; one is a fund investment director, "the golden rule" the author shares Le K line proposed by Mr. R28's law, namely R28 with the A stock index control; third is the most simple, is the current index in a recent significant operation cycle in the position, when the application principle is the National Library Librarian Lao Tzu proposed by Mr. Zhou, anti height can be according to historical statistical value.
2) combination. How much money does each share occupy when it holds more than one stock?. The combinations here are basically unrelated to CAPM and APT. How much money per share depends on the position of the trading system where each stock is located. If multiple strategies are used at the same time, different systems depend on the expected average annual rate of return of each system. In addition, when the same system gives a new stock signal, whether it is convertible or not, it is also a problem that the system should consider.
3) segmentation. That is, the sale of the same stock is carried out in segments. A system trader based on a trend based strategy
usually needs to set up a number of buy and sell points. For example, the system has set three possible buying points, then each purchase point should be put into how much money, which is also part of the management of funds. Of course, in more cases, the problem also falls into the range of buying, selling, and stopping.
The three layers of position, combination and segmentation are interwoven together. For example, when the market risk coefficient is increased,
Combinations and segments are often affected at the same time when a position is to be reduced. Ideally, the system itself makes clear rules for all of the issues, but it is virtually impossible because of the limitations of the software platform. For small and medium investors, the use of manual methods to deal with every day, and gradually set up their own set of methods, I believe we can achieve the basic results.
Of course, whether it is index formula, stock selection formula, trading formula, or trading system, its life is derived from the trading strategy. Trading strategy is based on the basic principles of the stock market and the operation of non random characteristics and regularity of in-depth study of the principles and general principles of operation. We often see a lot of big fund managers and traders do not make any formulas, they are successful because they have a systematic and in-depth grasp of the trading strategy. Of course, if there is a good software, they put their strategy into the formula, will save a lot of time and energy (at this point, you have to make up some indicators of actual operation, it is very good). However,
everything has advantages and disadvantages, too mechanical will damage insight, creativity and adaptability.
Trading system thinking
1) from the analysis of changes in the market value, historical Niugu stock price changes, capital expansion, equity in the main range, looking for what kind of manufacturing niugu.
2) from the operating frequency, the history of money speculators changes of assets, money stock price from what hold to what price analysis; stock from the operating frequency, the history of money speculators lose money from assets change, what price to hold what price, these stocks lose money what is the nature of the analysis in the equity and performance. So as to find the best operation frequency; the asset resistance position; the stock price resistance position.
3) through the analysis of single large (which is in your trading system notes) full body surface); data analysis of shareholders; turnover analysis; index analysis of the deviation of the focus of the market. Looking for buying and selling points.
4) the index deviates from the center of the market and the position of the linear relationship, explore the creation of index and position of the annual equation and quarterly equation.
5) analysis of the stock exclusive, especially for the callback stock "time, amplitude, volume analysis, analysis of
characteristics of air refueling, establish a time interval, the optimal number of target stocks involved in the optimal principal numbers, and the best.
In a word: a trading system formed in addition to the characteristics of the market generally, everyone should have the personal characteristics, for the same transaction (s - H) and short-term (hours and days), middle (Zhou Yuyue), long-term (month and year) of different transactions (which has been operating characteristics of people contain personal) should also be different, for different markets (stocks, futures, options, warrants, and spread trading funds, bonds, foreign exchange trading system) in the sub item of the emphasis should also be different, is the use of technical analysis of the system parameters should be fully adjusted. Trading strategies should also have primary and secondary points, so that the entire trading system is very clear. Don't talk about the strategy analysis before the transaction, from the start of trading, the trading system is to firmly grasp the final three points (a buy and two stop loss selling point - target point and risk control points, which is not clear) in the market to win in a probabilistic manner (truncated from obtaining the total order) profit.
Note: the trading system, especially in the establishment of intelligent trading system on large data analysis, market factors and personality traders need to fully model, and this paper on the "core" trading system has a specific formulation is instructive