基于状态空间模型的气候变化与中国粮食安全动态关系研
究
吴昊;李育冬
【期刊名称】《中国农业资源与区划》
【年(卷),期】2015(000)002
【摘要】Food security is closely related to the long-term stability of our country, which is promoted as one of the six primary tasks in the Central Economic Affairs Meeting lists in 2014 . This paper mainly discussed the dynam-ic effects of climate change on food security, i. e. , taking the yields of rice, wheat and corn as dependent variables and climate changes and factor inputs as explanatory variables. We estimated the dynamic relation between China's climate change and food security based on a state space model and panel dataset from 1978 to 2012 . The results showed that there was a long-time dynamic equilibrium relationship among climate change, materials input and food production. During the study period, it detected the following trends regarding temperature, precipitation and sunshine. Temperature generally rising in China's major grain producing areas had a significant negative effect on corn yields. Precipitation decreased in main rice producing areas and increased in main corn producing areas. Therefore, the main rice producing areas should focus on preventing drought, while the main corn producing areas should pay more attention to