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考研英语经济学人文章阅读训练十三

考研英语经济学人文章阅读训练十三
考研英语经济学人文章阅读训练十三

How big is China’s economy?Let the Big Mac decide

中国经济规模有多大?用巨无霸的价格来衡量吧

Our index reckons China’s GDP is bigger than the World Bank thinks 以巨无霸指数衡量,中国的GDP被世界银行所低估

America’s economy did not exceed China’s in size until the1880s, according to the Maddison Project at the University of Groningen.The two now rival each other again.Because China’s workers are4.7times as numerous as America’s,they need be only a fraction as productive to surpass America’s output.No fewer than53countries would already have a bigger GDP than America if they were as populous as China.

据格罗宁根大学麦迪森项目的数据显示,美国的经济规模直到19世纪80年代才超过中国。如今,两国又在一较高下。由于中国的劳动力人口是美国的4.7倍,因此人均生产力仅需达美国的几分之一,便能在总产值上超过美国。如果世界各国都拥有中国这样的人口规模,那么将至少有53个国家的国内生产总值(GDP)超过美国。

In2019China’s workers produced over99trn yuan-worth of goods and services.America’s produced$21.4trn-worth.Since it took about6.9yuan to buy a dollar last year,China’s GDP was worth only$14trn when converted into dollars at market rates.That was still well short of America’s.

2019年,中国劳动者创造了价值超过99万亿人民币的商品和服务,美国则为21.4万亿美元。去年人民币兑美元汇率大约为6.9,如果按市场汇率将人民币换算成美元,那么中国去年的GDP仅为14万亿,仍远远低于美国。

But6.9yuan stretches further in China than a dollar goes in America.One example is the McDonald’s Big Mac.It costs about21.70yuan in China

and$5.71in America,according to prices collected by The Economist.By that measure,it takes only3.8yuan to buy as much as a dollar.But if that is the case,then99trn yuan can buy as much as$26trn,and China’s economy is already considerably bigger than America’s.

但中国6.9元人民币的购买力高于美国的1美元。以麦当劳的巨无霸为例,根据《经济学人》收集的价格数据显示,巨无霸在中国的售价约为21.70元,在美国则为5.71美元。以此来计,1美元的购买力仅与3.8元人民币相当。如果按照这一比例,99万亿元人民币就相当于26万亿美元,那么中国的经济规模已经远超过美国。

Motivated by this logic,The Economist has compared the price of Big Macs around the world since1986.The result is a rough gauge of the purchasing power of currencies.It suggests that many currencies are undervalued,relative to the dollar,on the foreign-exchange markets.The Swiss franc and the Lebanese pound are overvalued.Lebanon’s currency was undervalued until inflation took off late last year,raising local prices even as the pound remained pegged to the dollar.The Big Mac alone jumped38%in price.

基于这种逻辑,《经济学人》对1986年以来世界各地巨无霸的价格进行了比较,并以此来衡量各国货币的购买力。结果显示,外汇市场上许多货币相对美元的购买力都被低估了,而瑞士法郎和黎巴嫩镑则被高估了。黎巴嫩镑此前一直被低估,直到去年年底黎巴嫩发生通货膨胀,尽管黎巴嫩兑美元汇率未变,但当地物价却上涨了,仅麦当劳巨无霸的价格就上涨了38%。

Every few years the World Bank embarks on a vastly more systematic effort to gauge purchasing power by comparing thousands of prices across the world.The results can be startling.Its survey of prices in2011,

released six years ago,showed that China was cheaper than previously thought and its economy was therefore much larger.Based on these estimates,the IMF calculated that its GDP overtook America’s in2014and was27%bigger in2019.

每隔几年,世界银行便会对世界各地的数千种商品的价格进行比较,并以此评估各国货币的购买力。其结果往往出乎意料。据世界银行六年前发布的2011年物价调查显示,中国物价比此前预期要低,因此中国经济规模实际要大得多。国际货币基金组织据此估算,中国GDP在2014年便已反超美国,到2019年更是超过美国27%。

Many observers,however,greeted these estimates with scepticism.In 2010an informal survey by a reporter at Caixin,a financial magazine, noted that a number of items were dearer in Hangzhou than in its sister city Boston.(It compared apples to apples,and found that the Golden Delicious variety was37%pricier in the Chinese city.)

然而,许多观察人士对此表示怀疑。2010年,财经杂志《财新》的记者进行了一项非正式调查,结果显示,杭州市许多商品的价格比其姊妹城市波士顿更贵。(调查人员对两地苹果的价格进行了比较,结果发现杭州市的金冠苹果要比波士顿高37%。)

The sceptics won some vindication in May when the World Bank released its latest price-comparison exercise.It discovered that things were about 17%more expensive in China,relative to America,than previously thought. At a stroke,China’s GDP fell by over$3.2trn.The estimates suggest China did not overtake America’s economy until2016.

今年5月,世界银行发布了一份最新的物价比较报告,这位怀疑论者提供了一些佐证。报告显示,中国物价相较于美国比预期高出17%。如此一来,中国的GDP一下子便下降了3.2万亿美元。据此估算,中国经济规模直到2016年才反超美国。

But are these new estimates any more robust than earlier efforts? Comparing prices across the world is fraught with difficulties.An item may be a staple in one place and a delicacy in another.The World Bank must also decide how much weight to give each item.That depends on shopping habits,which differ—partly because prices differ.It is easy to go around in circles.

但是,这些最新的预测比以往更加准确吗?对全球各地商品价格的比较可谓是困难重重。一种食物在某地可能是普通食物,但在另一个地方可能就成了珍稀美食。世界银行还必须确定每种商品的权重。这取决于购物习惯的差异,但购物习惯的差异又是多因素的,价格因素只是其中一方面。因此研究结果最终可能毫无意义。

So it might help to check the World Bank’s results against a cruder yardstick—like the price of a Big Mac.Our index suggests that the bank now,if anything,underestimates the buying power of China’s currency,and therefore its economic size.McDonald’s was once a symbol of America’s economic might.Now the Big Mac shows how its might is being surpassed.

因此,我们或许应该以更简单粗暴的标准(例如巨无霸的价格)来检验世界银行调查结论的可靠性。据巨无霸指数显示,世界银行目前低估了人民币的购买力,进而低估了中国的经济规模。麦当劳曾经是美国经济实力的象征,而如今的巨无霸指数却见证着美国正在被其他国家所超越。

(红色标注词为重难点词汇)

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