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奥巴马当选总统后会如何对待中国

奥巴马当选总统后会如何对待中国
奥巴马当选总统后会如何对待中国

奥巴马当选总统后会如何对待中国

YES WE CAN!

谁都不会相信一个黑人能够当上美国总统,但是正如这句口号一样,奥巴马凭借着自身的魅力与实力成功颠覆了传统创造了奇迹,他的当选无疑在整个人类文明史中都有着里程碑似的意义。在这里,除了惊叹与钦佩以外,作为一个中国人,一个与美国有着千丝万缕联系的过度却又同时充满了是是非非,我们或许会更加关心,这位不平凡的总统上台之后,是否也会不平凡地去对待中国呢,他又将采取什么样的态度什么样的策略去处理与中国的关系呢?

先回顾下小布什执政期吧,应该说在他的执政期间,中美关系和中美贸易都达到了前所未有的良好状态。举个例来看,中国的公司只要验证合格,取得美国核发的执照,就可以向美国购买高科技产品,不需要再个案审核。由于某些高科技产品或因其军民两用属性而关涉国家安全,因此过去美国对此类产品出口一贯进行控制,而美对华长期实行的高技术出口管制,也抑制了美高新技术产品对中国市场的出口增长。布什在临下台前为中国购买高科技松了绑,可以说在对中关系方面是布什政府还是做出了较大功绩的。

奥巴马呢?他当选总统的第一时间亲自向加、日、法、英、德、奥、以、墨、韩等九个国家回电表示感谢,却撇开了中国。现在他就要入主白宫,不禁让人心生想法,他到底将会如何对待中国,以后会怎么和中国打交道?

其实奥巴马没第一时间致电中国,不意味着他对中国不重视。很少为人知的是,在投入总统竞选准备前,奥巴马曾于2006年1 月与共和党参议员科尔曼组建了一个“参议院美中工作小组”,计划通过全面美中接触和对话发展两国关系。这个小组还专门挑选了亚裔顾问。可见奥巴马对中美关系的重视。此外,今后他对中国和台湾问题的主张可能会很大地影响到奥巴马对待中国的方式。在竞选期间奥巴马就阐述过他对中国的态度:中国非敌非友是竞争者。对待竞争者自然是要有压制。但是为了避免两虎相争,两败俱伤,还要有必要的合作。那什么地方合,什么地方压,怎么合,怎么压呢?在我粗略想来并参考了一些资料后认为会有如下方面。

关于如何压制。按照民主党的惯例,他们一贯爱借“民主,人权”问题向中国施压。这次代表民主党的奥巴马上台,散粉思考者估计他还会老调重弹。在西藏问题、宗教自由、政治活动自由方面,共和党和民主党这两党意见相差不大。民主党相比更重视劳工权益问题。这也许是今后人权方面的侧重点。此外,美国可能在贸易上对中国强硬。在竞选期间奥巴马说过:"我们最终必须直面对华贸易问题。在太多的案例中,中国采取的竞争方式对美国劳工是不公平的。这不但是指中国收购其他国家的企业,向我们倾销产品,却不愿开放他们自己的市场。我明确表示反对他们的这种做法。这不仅包括他们侵犯知识产权,还包括通过过低的人民币汇率使中国产品出口更具优势。"可以看出,奥巴马想改变中美贸易的不平衡,在贸易问题上采取新动作,贸易保护主义将日渐抬头,很可能会要求中国减少出口,促使中国开放汇率。考察中美建交后历届美国总统上台后的对华政策,历任总统在上任初期的对华政策上都显示出强硬色彩;但随着时间发展,出于国际形势考量,他们的对华政策都会慢慢趋于温和和理性。奥巴马虽是“新人”,但也摆脱不了这个“怪圈”,奥巴马政府只会以贸易为理由来对中国施压,不会根本性改变中美关系。

关于如何合作。竞选期间,奥巴马曾就此表态说,作为总统,他将致力于在亚洲建立更为有效的框架机制,以推动稳定和繁荣,并协助美国克服跨国界威胁,例如追踪恐怖分子。要在亚洲建立有效的框架机制,就得和亚洲大国中国合作。奥巴马得通过和中国的合作,才能够解决朝鲜问题,伊朗问题,否则这个框架就不会有效。美国除了反恐战争之外,它现在亟待解决的金融危机问题上更需要中国的协助。中国作为世界上强大的经济实体,和作为美

国数一数二的债权国,在环球经济一体化的今天,中美只有合作才能令双方走出困境。另外,奥巴马大力提倡发展和使用再生能源。还把领导这方面工作的一个华裔诺贝尔奖获得者朱隶文从能源部下某国家实验室的一把手提升为能源部的部长。朱隶文曾经发表讲话说到,美国在发展和使用再生能源上要做先行者,同时希望中国能跟随。以后清洁能源和气候保护议题可能将成为中美关系的又一重要内容。金融危机和气候保护,再生能源问题是中美关系中最新出现的三个议题。双方在这一领域的合作如果成功将把双边关系提升到一个新的水平。

可以预见的是,无论是压制还是合作,中美友好关系的大前提是不会改变的,这是符合双方根本利益的。在和平年代的现在,彼此合作往往能带来更大的效益,而中美作为世界大国,之间的紧密合作牵扯到整个世界的命脉,互相压制甚至是对立是世界人民都不希望看到的,我想两国人民也都深深明白这一点。奥巴马能传奇般地当上美国总统,可见他是个聪明人,聪明人是不会干损害自身利益的傻事儿的,中美关系不断巩固会成为趋势,也许奥巴马不会在这方面走得太远,又也许,正如那句“YES WE CAN!”,奥巴马政府的表现会值得我们乃至世界人民的期待。

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