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《经济学家》读译参考

《经济学家》读译参考
《经济学家》读译参考

《经济学家》读译参考(99):印度经济过热-欲赶超中国必先深化

The world economy 世界经济

India overheats 印度经济过热(陈继龙编译)

Feb 1st 2007

From The Economist print edition

India cannot run as fast as China without further reform

不深化改革,印度就无法赶上中国

THE Indian tiger is on the prowl[1].(1)This week, in an apt piece of symbolism, Tata Steel, which dates back to the days of the Raj, leapt into the league of top producers when it bought Britain's Corus, which includes the steelmaking remnants of the old imperial power. Nor is Tata alone: younger Indian companies such as Infosys and Wipro are storming international markets.Meanwhile, the world's business people and investors queue up to lavish money on India's talented engineers and computer scientists,

印度这只老虎正在四处觅食(寻找投资机会)。本周,塔塔钢铁集团(Tata Steel)收购了英国科鲁斯(Corus)集团,一跃成为世界最大钢铁制造商之一。塔塔创立于英帝国殖民统治时代(Raj),而科鲁斯又是古老的英帝国钢铁制造业历史的仅存见证,因而这次并购案具有很好的象征意义。塔塔公司并非特例——印度新生代企业如Infosys和Wipro都在抢占国际市场。与此同时,世界企业人和投资者也纷纷把钱“砸”在才华横溢的印度工程师和计算机专家身上。

The roar from Delhi is echoing across Asia. After peevish[2] years cast as China's underperforming neighbour, the huntress is now in hot pursuit. Over the past year the Indian economy has grown by an impressive 9.2%, not far behind China's 10.4%. At some point this year India's growth rate could even outpace China's; and if you measure things by purchasing power parity, India should soon overtake Japan and become the third-biggest economy, behind only America and China.

德里的热闹传遍了亚洲。印度这个“捕猎者”作为中国的近邻,多年来一直表现不佳,心情急躁,如今正奋起直追。过去一年印度经济显著增长,达9.2%,接近于中国的10.4%。在一定的时期内印度今年的增长速度甚至可能超过中国;如果按购买力平价(purchasing power parity, PPP)计算,印度很快就会超过日本,成为仅次于美国和中国的世界第三大经济体。

(2)No wonder an increasing number of Indian businessmen, policymakers and economists are basking[3] in the belief that their country is burning bright having at last broken free of its bureaucratic cage. An economy once famous for the “Hindu rate of growth”, of 3% a year, was opened up by the reforms of the 1990s, many of them pushed through by the man who is now prime minister, Manmohan Singh. His government's latest five-year plan assumes that India can sustain average growth of 9%. Who can doubt “Incredible India”, to borrow the slogan of its tourism campaign?

很显然,印度越来越多的商人、决策人士和经济学家满以为他们国家彻底摆脱了官僚主义的束缚,形势一片大好。这个曾经以“印度式发展速度”(即每年3%)著称的经济体,从上世纪90年代开始进行改革开放,其中很多改革

措施都是由现任总理曼莫汉?辛格推动实施的。辛格政府最新推出的五年计划指出,印度有能力维持9%的平均增长速度。用印度旅游业的发展口号来说,就是要建设一个“令人难以置信的印度”,这一点谁会怀疑呢?

Tweaking the long tail 揪住“长尾巴”

(3)Fast growth is essential to pull millions of Indians out of poverty, so it is sad to pour cold water on this story. But that is precisely what is needed when there are so many alarming signs of overheating. Across India prices are rising fast, factories are at full capacity, loans are piling up. Yes, the economic reforms of the early 1990s spurred competition, forced firms to become more productive and boosted India's trend—or sustainable—rate of growth. But the problem is that this new speed limit is almost certainly lower than the government's one. Historic data would suggest a figure not much above 7%—well below China's 9-10%.

要想让数亿印度人摆脱贫困,就必须快速发展,因此他们说要创造一个“令人难以置信的印度”,我们不好泼冷水。不过,当有种种迹象表明经济过热时,泼点冷水就很有必要了。现在的印度,物价快速上涨,工厂产能过剩,信贷不断增长。20世纪90年代初的经济改革确实刺激了竞争,迫使企业增强生产力,进而提高了印度趋势(或可持续)增长率,然而问题是事实上现在的增长速度几乎肯定比这一新确定的最大增速要快。如果对历史数据进行分析,略高于7%的速度应该比较合适,但要大大低于中国的9~10%。

When you mention overheating, many analysts point towards China. Yet India displays far more symptoms of the disease. Inflation has risen to 6-7% (compared with 2.8% in China); a record 99% of Indian firms report that they are operating above their optimal capacity; and credit is expanding at an annual rate of 30%, twice as fast as in China. Unlike China, India also has a widening current-account deficit—a classic sign of overheating, as domestic output fails to keep pace with surging demand. And if you are looking for a stockmarket bubble, Indian share prices have risen more than four-fold over the past four years, far more than in China. If something is not done, then a hard landing will become inevitable.

一说起经济过热,不少分析人士都会想到中国,不过印度的“过热征象”要严重得多。通胀已升至6~7%,而中国仅为2.8%;印度企业中有创纪录的99%报告说运转已经超过最佳产能;信贷以每年30%的速度增长,比中国快一倍。不同于中国的是,印度的经常项目赤字(current-account deficit)也日益恶化,而这恰好是经济过热的典型表现,它表明国内已经是供不应求。股市泡沫也存在,印度股价过去四年来增长了4倍,远远超过中国。如果无所举措,印度将不可避免地迎来经济“硬着陆”。

The Reserve Bank of India has been too timid in cooling down domestic demand: although one interest rate was raised this week by a quarter point, the overall rise in rates over the past two and a half years has not even kept up with consumer-price inflation. But the main focus of the government's attention should be on supply—and dismantling[4] the many barriers that keep its speed limit below China's.

在为内需降温方面,印度储备银行(央行)显得过于缩手缩脚:本周虽然它把利率提高了25个基点,但过去两年半以来利率的总增长始终低于消费者价格通胀水平。不过政府的主要精力还是应该放在供给上,同时要搬掉令其最大增速度落后于中国的众多绊脚石。

(4)So far, reform in India has focused on setting its inventive private sector free from the world's most fearsome bureaucracy. This has unleashed[5] entrepreneurial talent, but more change is needed. Now is the time to tackle the public sector itself. Infrastructure, such as roads and power, and public services, such as education and drinking water, are woefully inadequate and limit growth. Even as the economy has been booming, many public services have worsened. It seems incongruous that somebody can own a mobile phone, yet has to waste hours queuing for drinking water. India's top computer scientists are feted[6] around the world,

yet most children in rural areas lack the basic education needed to find more productive work. Around half of all Indian women are illiterate, compared with a ratio of around one in seven in China.

迄今印度改革一直致力于将私有创新企业从这个世界上最可怕的官僚体制中解放出来,企业家们因此得以人尽其才,但其他方面也亟需改革,当务之急就是解决国有部门问题。公路、能源等基础建设和教育、饮水等公共事业资源不足,让人痛心不说,还制约了经济发展。国家经济不断繁荣,而许多公共服务业状况却甚至每况愈下。一个人一边拿着移动电话,一边却要排上好几个钟头的队等水喝,这种状况看上去非常不协调。印度顶尖计算机专家遍布世界,享受着优厚待遇,而印度农村地区的大多数儿童却无法接受基础教育,因而也就无法找到生产力较强的工作。印度妇女约有一半是文盲,而中国仅为1/7。

Singh's songsheet 辛格曲高和寡

India's rulers have two bad excuses for not dealing with those roads, schools and hospitals. The first is theoretical. Many Indian economic commentators say that further structural reforms, though desirable, are not essential to keep the economy growing at 8% or more because of the “demographic dividend”. A fast-growing working population and a falling dependency rate (thanks to a lower birth rate) will ensure more workers, more saving and hence more investment.

印度领导人指出了未及解决道路、学校和医院问题的两个理由,但都不住脚。第一个是理论上的。印度许多经济评论员认为,虽然深化结构改革再好不过,但凭借“人口红利”(demographic dividend),要维持8%或更高的增长速度也是能做到的。有了劳动力人口的快速增长以及人口负担系数(dependency rate)的减小(出生率较低之故),就不愁没有更多的劳动力、更多的储蓄进而有更多的投资。

India's demographic structure is indeed starting to look more like that in East Asia when its growth took off. (5)But this mechanistic view of growth assumes that demography is destiny and that economic policies do not matter. In fact, open markets, education and investment, especially in infrastructure, were the three chief ingredients of East Asia's success. Population growth by itself does not add to prosperity, unless young people are educated and new jobs are created. India needs to reform its absurdly restrictive labour laws which hold back the expansion of manufacturing particularly.

的确在人口结构上,印度的现状与当初处于发展起步阶段的东亚越来越相像。但是,如果如此机械地看待发展问题,就不免会得出人口因素决定一切以及经济政策并不重要的结论。事实上,东亚的成功“三要素”是市场开放、教育开放和投资开放(特别是在基础建设领域)。人口增长了,只有在年轻人接受教育和创造新的就业机会情况下,才会促进经济繁荣。印度应对劳动法加以改革,这些法规的限制规定实在荒唐(在印度,雇员在100人以上的公司要解雇员工必须先得到邦政府的批准。——译者按),对制造业规模扩大的制约作用尤为突出。

The second excuse for doing nothing is practical: there is little room to spend more on schools and hospitals. India already has one of the biggest budget deficits among the large emerging economies (as much as 8% of GDP going by the widest measure). In fact, plenty can be achieved by reform, rather than just spending. Private investors are hesitant about putting money in infrastructure, because the regulators are not independent enough of populist politicians to guarantee a decent return.

印度无所作为的第二个理由则是现实意义上的——无法拿出更多的资金投入到学校和医院。在新兴的大经济体中,印度的预算赤字名列前茅(按照最常用的计算方法,可达GDP的8%)。事实上只要改革,就能获得足够资金,不能一心就想着投入。个人投资者对是否把钱投到基础设施建设中正举棋不定,这是因为监管部门和希望有利可图的人民党人还是有扯不清的瓜葛。

If these things can be tackled, India can indeed match China's growth. (6)Mr Singh remains a reformer, but his government relies on the support of the communist parties and, with today's prosperity, there is no stomach to take them on. The worry is that today's overheating will need to boil over before that mindset changes.

如果这些问题得以解决,印度是可以赶上中国的。辛格一如既往坚持改革,但他的政府却指望共产党的支持,并且经济繁荣如斯,他们也没有闲情逸致去同共产党角力,怕就怕经济过热到“沸腾”的地步时他们的脑子还没有转过弯来。

[NOTES](LONGMAN)

1. (be/go) on the prowl (be/go) prowling 小心而悄悄的移动; 徘徊(觅食): There was a fox on the prowl near the chicken coop. 有只狐狸在鸡舍附近踅来踅去. * (joc 谑) The soldiers went on the prowl hoping to meet some girls. 这些大兵逛来逛去, 希望碰上花姑娘.

2. peevish adj. easily annoyed (esp by unimportant things); irritable 易怒的(尤指对小事); 急躁的.

3. bask v.[I, Ipr] ~ (in sth) sit or lie enjoying warmth 坐著或躺著取暖: basking in the sunshine, by the fire, on the beach 在阳光下、火炉旁、海滩上取暖* (fig 比喻) basking in sb's favour, approval, etc 受某人的恩惠、嘉许等.

4. dismantle v. 1 take (sth) to pieces 将(某物)拆开; 拆除(某物): dismantle a faulty motor, machine, etc (for repairs) 把有毛病的发动机、机器等拆开(以便修理)* dismantle an exhibition, a theatrical set, etc 把所有展品、戏剧布景等拆除* (fig 比喻) We should dismantle our inefficient tax system. 我们这个效益很差的税收制度应该废除. 2 remove fittings and furnishings from (a building or ship) 拆除(建筑物或船只)的装备.

5. unleash v. [Tn, Tn.pr] ~ sth (against/on sb/sth) (a) set sth free from a leash or restraint 解开带子或去掉限制以放开(某事物): unleash the guard dogs 解开带子放出警卫犬. (b) (fig 比喻) set sth free from control; release sth in a powerful attack (on sb/sth) 使某物不受控制; 放出某物对(某人[某物])进行强有力的攻击: unleash the forces of nuclear power 发出核动力的攻击力* He unleashed a torrent of abuse againstthe unfortunate shop assistant. 他对那倒霉的店员骂不绝口.

6. fete v. [Tn esp passive 尤用於被动语态] honour or entertain (sb) in a special way 特别款待或招待(某人): The queen was feted wherever she went. 女王不论走到哪里都受到盛情款待.

《经济学家》读译参考:美国绿了-美国可能带头应对气候变化

The greening of America

美国绿了(陈继龙编译)

Jan 25th 2007

From The Economist print edition

How America is likely to take over leadership of the fight against climate change; and how it can get it right?

美国领导各国共同应对气候变化的可能性有多大?该如何正确应对呢?

A COUNTRY with a presidential system tends to get identified with its leader. So, for the rest of the world, America is George Bush's America right now. It is the country that has mismanaged the Iraq war; holds prisoners without trial at Guantánamo Bay; restricts funding for stem-cell research because of fundamentalist religious beliefs; and destroyed the

chance of a global climate-change deal based on the Kyoto protocol .

人们往往认为,总统制国家就是其总统的国家。因此,在世界其他国家看来,现在的美国就是乔治?布什的美国。正是这样一个国家,对伊拉克战事处置失当,把战俘关押在关塔那摩海湾又不审讯,顾及原教旨主义分子的宗教信仰而限制对干细胞研究的资助;也正是这样一个国家,拒绝签署《京都议定书》有关的全球气候变化协议。

But to simplify thus is to misunderstand—especially in the case of huge, federal America. One of its great strengths is the diversity of its political, economic and cultural life. While the White House dug its heels in[1] on global warming, much of the rest of the country was moving. That's what forced the president's concession to greens in the state-of-the-union address on January 23rd. His poll ratings sinking under the weight of Iraq, Mr Bush is grasping for popular issues to keep him afloat[2]; and global warming has evidently become such an issue. Albeit in the context of energy security, a now familiar concern of his, Mr Bush spoke for the first time to Congress of “the serious challenge of global climate change” and proposed measures designed, in part, to combat it.

不过,只见树木,不见森林,对于泱泱联邦大国美国而言尤为如此。美国的重要特点之一就在于其政治、经济和文化生活的多样性。当白宫在全球气候变暖问题上始终坚持拒绝有所作为时,该国其他许多人都行动了起来。这也迫使总统在1月23日的国情咨文中对环保人士作出让步。受伊战所累,布什的民意支持率一路下滑,他也希望抓住民众关心的问题来提升自己的支持率,而全球气候变暖显然就成了这样一个问题。当下布什最关心的是能源安全问题,但尽管如此,布什还是以能源安全为依托,(在国情咨文讲话中)首次对国会提及“全球气候变化带来的严峻挑战”,并建议制定相应的应对措施。

Hot for the time of year

年度热点

It's the weather, appropriately, that has turned public opinion—starting with Hurricane Katrina. Scientists had been warning Americans for years that the risk of “extreme weather events” would probably increase as a result of climate change. But scientific papers do not drive messages home as convincingly as the destruction of a city. And the heatwave that torched America's west coast last year, accompanied by a constant drip of new research on melting glacier s and dying polar bears, has only strengthened the belief that something must be done.

让民意转向的恰好就是天气问题,而这又始于卡特里娜飓风。多年来科学家一直提醒美国人,随着气候的变化,发生“极端天气事件”的可能性增高,但是相比科学论文,天气事件毁坏一座城市的事实要更具有说服力。去年,酷热席卷了美国西海岸,同时关于冰川融化和北极熊面临死亡威胁的研究报告也是层出不穷,一切都使得有关方面进一步认识到必须有所举措了。

Business is changing its mind too. Five years ago corporate America was solidly against carbon controls. But the threat of a patchwork of state regulations, combined with the opportunity to profit from new technologies, began to shift business attitudes. And that movement has gained momentum[3], because companies that saw their competitors espouse carbon controls began to fear that, once the government got down to designing regulations, they would be left out of the discussion if they did not jump on the bandwagon. So now the loudest voices are not resisting change but arguing for it.

企业也在改变思路。5年前,美国企业坚决反对控制碳排放,但在州政府各项规定的约束之下,再加上新技术有利可图,企业纷纷开始转变态度。而且,这种势头越来越猛,因为企业眼见其竞争对手赞成控制碳排放,开始担心如若自己不“顺势而动”,那么一旦(联邦)政府考虑制定有关规定时,就不会采纳他们的意见。因此,如今企业叫得最凶的不是抵制而是支持改革。

Support for carbon controls has also grown among some unlikely groups: security hawks (who want to reduce America's dependence on Middle Eastern oil); farmers (who like subsidies for growing the raw material for ethanol); and evangelicals (who worry that man should be looking after the Earth God gave him a little better). This alliance has helped

persuade politicians to move. Arnold Schwarzenegger, California's Republican governor, has led the advance, with muscular measures legislating Kyoto-style curbs in his state. His popularity has rebounded as a result. And now there is movement too at the federal level, which is where it really matters. Since the Democrats took control of Congress after the November mid-term elections, bills to tackle climate change have proliferated. And three of the serious candidates for the presidency in 2008—John McCain, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama—are all pushing for federal measures.

有些令人意想不到的团体也渐渐开始支持控制碳排放,比如能源安全鹰派成员(也就是希望减少美国对中东石油依赖的那些人)、农民(希望获得补贴用于种植提炼乙醇的原材料)和福音派人士(他们认为人类应当悉心呵护上帝所赐才会有好报)。这些人对说动政界人士也起到了推动作用。加州州长、共和党人阿诺德?施瓦辛格率先在本州采取了有力措施,按照《京都议定书》的有关要求,通过了强制性限排的立法,他也因此重拾威信。现在联邦政府一级也开始有所行动,而这才是真正重要的。自从11月中期选举后民主党主政国会以来,关于对付气候变化问题的提案越来越多。三名2008年总统候选人也都在力促联邦政府拿出举措,他们是约翰?麦凯恩、希拉里?克林顿和巴拉克?奥巴马。

Europe's good, and bad, example

欧洲榜样,择其善者而从之

Unfortunately, Mr Bush's new-found interest in climate change is coupled with, and distorted by, his focus on energy security. Reducing America's petrol consumption by 20% by 2017, a target he announced in the state-of-the-union address, would certainly diminish the country's dependence on Middle Eastern oil, but the way he plans to go about it may not be either efficient or clean. Increasing fuel-economy standards for cars and trucks will go part of the way, but for most of the switch America will have to rely on a greater use of alternative fuels. That means ethanol (inefficient because of heavy subsidies and high tariffs on imports of foreign ethanol) or liquefied coal (filthy because of high carbon emissions).

不幸的是,布什最近对气候变化的关注,是同他对能源安全的关注扯在一起的,人们因此也怀疑他醉翁之意不在酒。他在国情咨文中宣布要在2017年以前将美国的油耗减少20%。这一目标无疑会让美国对中东石油的依赖性减低,但是他计划实现这一目标的方式却与提高能效或者环保无关。虽然这中间涵盖了提高汽车节油标准在内,但大部分还是依赖更多的采用其他形式的燃料,也就是乙醇或者液态煤。前者由于补贴大、进口关税高因而能效并不高,后者则由于碳排放量高所以容易造成环境污染。

The measure of Mr Bush's failure to tackle this issue seriously is his continued rejection of the only two clean and efficient solutions to climate change. One is a carbon tax, which this paper has long advocated. The second is a cap-and-trade system of the sort Europe introduced to meet the Kyoto targets. It would limit companies' emissions while allowing them to buy and sell permits to pollute. Either system should, by setting a price on carbon, discourage its emission; and, in doing so, encourage the development and use of cleaner-energy technologies. Just as America's adoption of catalytic converters led eventually to the world's conversion to lead-free petrol, so its drive to clean-energy technologies will ensure that these too spread.

布什并没有认真对待这一问题。之所以这么说,是因为他仍拒绝采用解决气候变化问题仅有的两种既高效又清洁的方法。一个是征收碳排放税,这也是《经济学人》杂志长期以来所提倡的。另一个则是欧洲为达到《京都议定书》要求所实行的“配额-贸易”制度。该制度一方面限制企业排污,同时也允许其买卖排污许可证。该制度通过对碳排放进行定价(实际上就是要收费),因而应当会减少排放,并且可以促进企业开发利用清洁能源技术。正如美国当年采用催化式排气净化器最终引导了世界应用无铅汽油的潮流一样,美国努力开发的清洁能源技术也肯定能得到推广。

A tax is unlikely because of America's aversion to that three-letter word. Given that, it should go for a tough cap-and-trade

system. In doing so, it can usefully learn from Europe's experience. First, get good data. Europe failed to do so: companies were given too many permits, and emissions have therefore not fallen. Second, auction permits (which are, in effect, money) rather than giving them away free. Europe gave them away, which allowed polluters to make windfall[4] profits. This will be a huge fight; for, if the federal government did what the Europeans did, it would hand out $40 billion-50 billion in permits. Third, set a long time-horizon. Europeans do not know whether carbon emissions will still be constrained after 2012, when Kyoto runs out. Since most clean-energy projects have a payback period of more than five years, the system thus fails to encourage green investment.

美国人对“税”这个字一向反感,因此征收碳排放税是不可能的。既然如此,那么美国就只能采取严格的“配额-贸易”制度。为此美国可以借鉴欧洲有益的经验。首先,要确定适当的配额数量。欧洲就没能做到:配额发放过多,排放量因此并未减少。其次,对配额进行定价而不是免费发放,企业需要配额就必须花钱购买。欧洲无偿发放配额,结果却让排污企业赚得盆满钵满。对配额定价将带来巨大收益,而如果联邦政府效仿欧洲的做法,就等于将配额中所蕴含的400~500亿美元拱手送人。第三,要设定一个较长的有效时间范围。欧洲不清楚2012年《京都议定书》到期后是否仍需限制碳排放。既然大多数清洁能源项目的效益回报期都在5年以上,那么“配额-贸易”制度并不能鼓励环保投资。

One of America's most admirable characteristics is its belief that it has a duty of moral leadership. At present, however, it's not doing too well on that score. Global warming could change that. By tackling the issue now it could regain the high moral ground (at the same time as forging ahead in the clean-energy business, which Europe might otherwise dominate). And it looks as though it will; for even if the Toxic Texan continues to evade the issue, his successor will grasp it.

美国最难能可贵的一个特征在于,它坚信自己有责任成为道义领袖。不过就目前来看,在这一点上它的表现并不好,而全球变暖问题有可能令其有所改变。把眼下这个问题解决好了,美国就能重新树立自己的道义形象(与此同时,还能在清洁能源业中迎头赶上,避免欧洲占去先机)。现在看来似乎在未来它也能做到这一点,因为即便“有毒的得克萨斯人”(暗指布什是全球最大的污染制造者)继续回避这个问题,他的继任者也会抓住这一机会。

[NOTES](OXFORD)

1. dig sb’s heels/toes in be stubborn; refuse to give in 固执已见; 寸步不让

2. afloat adj. [pred 作表语] 1 floating in water or air (在水中或空中)漂浮著: The boat stuck on a sandbank but we soon got it afloat again. 小船在沙丘搁浅, 没过多久我们就又使它航行自如了. * The ship was listing badly but still kept afloat. 船倾侧得很厉害, 但却仍然漂浮不沉. 2 at sea; on board ship 在海上; 在船上: enjoy life afloat 喜欢海上生活. 3 out of debt or difficulties 无债; 无困难: The firm managed to stay afloat during the recession. 在经济衰退期间, 公司设法渡过了难关. 4 functioning 起作用: get a new business afloat, ie start it 创办新的企业. 5 (of rumours) being generally talked about; circulating (指谣言)传播; 流传: There's a story afloat that he'll resign. 有个传闻说他要辞职.

3. momentum n. 1 force that increases the rate of development of a process; impetus 动力; 冲力; 势头: The movement to change the union's constitution is slowly gathering momentum. 修改工会宪章的运动正慢慢加强. 2 (physics 物) quantity of motion of a moving object, measured as its mass multiplied by its velocity 动量: The sledge gained momentum as it ran down the hill. 雪橇从山上下冲时动量越来越大.

4. windfall n. 1 fruit, esp an apple, that has been blown off a tree by the wind 风吹落的果实(尤指苹果). 2 (fig 比喻) unexpected piece of good fortune, esp a legacy 意外的好运; (尤指)意外获得的遗产.

如何养活世界(来自经济学人的英语阅读精品,含翻译)

[2009.11.17]How to feed the world 如何养活世界 Nov 19th 2009 From The Economist print edition Business as usual will not do it 一切照旧已不再可行 IN 1974 Henry Kissinger, then America’s secretary of state, told the first world food conference in Rome that no child would go to bed hungry within ten years. Just over 35 years later, in the week of another United Nations food summit in Rome, 1 billion people will go to bed hungry. 1974年,在罗马举行的第一届世界粮食会议上,当时的美国国务卿亨利?基辛格宣称10年内将没有小孩再饿着肚子入睡。而35年之后的罗马,在又一届联合国粮食峰会在罗马召开的这一周内,仍有10亿人饿着肚子上床睡觉。 This failure, already dreadful, may soon get worse. None of the underlying agricultural problems which produced a spike in food prices in 2007-08 and increased the number of hungry people has gone away. Between now and 2050 the world’s populat ion will rise by a third, but demand for agricultural goods will rise by 70% and demand for meat will double. These increases are in a sense good news in that they are a result of rising wealth in poor and middle-income countries. But they will have to happen without farmers clearing large amounts of new land (there is some scope for expansion, but not much) or using up lots more water (in parts of the world, water supplies are stretched to their limit or beyond). Moreover, they will take place while farmers also wrestle with the consequences of climate change, which, on balance, will do more harm than good to farmland round the world. 这样的失败虽已甚为可怕,但很快将会变得更糟。现存的农业问题推动了2007-08年粮食价格的上涨,使饥饿人数有所增加,而这些问题无一得到解决。现在至2050年间,世界人口将增长1/3,但农产品需求将上涨70%,而肉类需求更将翻番。这些增长在一定意义上是个好消息,因为这是中低收入国家财富增长的结果。但是伴随这些增长的却是一些不容乐观的景象:农民无法清理出大量的新地(可耕地有扩大的空间,但并不多),更多的水资源会被耗尽(在世界某些地方,供水量已至其极限甚至超过了极限)。此外,与此同时农民还需应对气候变化造成的影响。总的来说,气候变化对其全球的耕地来说将是弊大于利的。 It may be too late to avoid another bout of price rises. Despite a global recession and the largest grain harvest on record in 2008, food prices are heading up again. Still, countries have a brief window of opportunity in which to set long-term policy goals without being distracted by panic measures. They need to do two things: invest in the productive capacity of agriculture and improve the operation of food markets. 或许想避免下一轮的价格上涨为时已晚。尽管全球经济衰退,而2008年收获了有记录以来

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019《经济学家》读译参考之十九:还算公道—中美洲咖啡贸易与“啡农”

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CONVIVIAL, and not averse to a drink, Nancy Wake could often be found cheering up a cocktail bar. In the late 1940s, and again towards the end of her life, it might have been the American Bar of the Stafford Hotel, just across the road from The Economist’s offices in London. In 1940, when she was living as a newlywed in Vichy France, it could have been another American Bar, this one in the H?tel du Louvre et de la Paix in Marseilles. It was a chance encounter here with an English officer, interned by the French authorities but that day on parole, which led to her membership of the resistance, and then to her role as an agent of the British Special Operations Executive in occupied France. Of the 39 SOE women infiltrated into France, 11 of whom would die in concentration camps, she was perhaps the most redoubtable. 南希?维克性格开朗,能喝善饮,鸡尾酒吧经常可以看到她惬意的身影。上世纪40年代末和生命最后的时光里她常光顾的可能是斯塔福德旅馆里的美国酒吧,这家酒吧就和伦敦《经济学人》办公楼隔路相望。而1940年时,新婚燕尔的维克居住在维希法国,那时候她可能是巴黎卢浮旅馆和马赛和平旅馆内另一家美国酒吧的常客。在这家酒吧,机缘巧合,她和一位被法国当局拘留恰巧在当天假释的英国军官相遇。正是这段偶遇让她加入了反法西斯抵抗组织,后来成为法国占领区内英国特种作战执行队的一名间谍。所有39名渗透到法国境内的间谍中,11名险些死在集中营里。维克恐怕是39名间谍中最厉害的角色了。 From her earliest days, Miss Wake combined opposing qualities. She was disciplined, but at the same time a free spirit. In Sydney, to which her large family had moved after leaving her birthplace in New Zealand, she twice ran away from home. As soon as she could, she made her way to London, then to Paris to work as a freelance journalist. There it was her cheerful independence as much as her good looks that caught the eye of the rich French industrialist, Henri Fiocca, who would take her to Marseilles as his wife. 打从很小起,维克性格中就充满了对立。她一方面严于律己,另一方面却叛逆不羁。一大家人从维克出生地新西兰搬至悉尼后,她曾两度离家出走。条件一允许她就去了伦敦,然后到巴黎当起了自由记者。在巴黎,凭着快乐的天性、独立的精神和美丽的容貌她吸引了腰缠万贯的法国企业家亨利?菲奥卡,随后,两人在马赛市结了婚。 She enjoyed her new life of luxury while it lasted, but she was no flibbertigibbet. Soon after meeting the interned British officer, she was helping to get similar Allied airmen, refugees and escaped prisoners-of-war out of occupied France and into Britain. She took a flat, ostensibly for a lover, in fact for the resistance, sheltered men on the run and became a crucial part of the southern escape line to Spain, travelling all over southern France from Nice to N?mes to Perpignan, with clothing, money and false documents. 虽然尽情享受着豪华奢侈的新生活,但她绝不是那种只贪图享受的轻浮女人。和那位英国军官认识后不久,她就开始为盟军空军、避难人员和从法国被占区逃往英国的战俘提供协助。她租下一幢公寓,以养情人作掩护,供抵抗组织活动所需,为逃难人员提供庇护;她带着衣物、钱和假造的公文,从尼斯到尼姆再到佩里皮昂在法国南部来回奔走,成为法国南部向西班牙逃亡路线的一个关键人物。

051《经济学家》读译参考之五十一:七年之痒-澳门发展几家欢喜几家愁

TEXT 51 The seven-year itch 七年之痒(陈继龙编译) Jul 27th 2006 | MACAU From The Economist print edition THE army of workers operating along what used to be Macau's waterfront is conducting “land reclamation[1]”: dumping sand into the water to create more land on which to build ever more casinos, resorts and hotels in the formerly Portuguese playground. Cranes and bulldozers beaver away[2] throughout the territory, building new high-rises. Like most of China's booming conurbations[3], Macau is paying an environmental price; the air is thick with smog and dust, and the Pearl River has transferred some of its p_______①to Macau's seas. (1)But the damage pales when set against[4] the promise of growth, and billboards proudly herald the coming of “the Las Vegas of Asia”. 在过去曾是澳门码头的沿线地区,成群结队的工人们正在“填海造田”:把沙子倒进水中以形成更多的陆地,从而在这片曾经是葡萄牙人的一亩三分地上建造更多的赌场、度假村和饭店。起重机和推土机无处不在,全力以赴地建造着新的高楼大厦。同中国大多数飞速发展的大都市一样,澳门正在为此付出环境上的代价。空气中弥漫着烟雾和灰尘,一些来自珠江的污染物也流入了澳门附近海域。但是,展望未来发展,这种损失算不了什么。一张张广告牌自豪地昭示着“亚洲的拉斯维加斯”即将来临。(译注:pale指“逊色、失色”,此处的when set against可以用“before”或“beside”来代替,意为“相比……”) Amid all the buzz, the music from a boat docked at the inner harbour sounds a strange note. The red-robed musicians and their audience are Taoists engaged in a religious ceremony. As the musicians play their instruments, the believers on board burn incense and e_______②scraps of food into the water as an offering to the gods. (2)The contrast of ancient ritual with feverish modernisation is the story of modern Macau: the story of development transforming a once-sheltered nook[5]. 内港码头边停靠的一艘小船上传来的音乐夹杂在一切喧嚣之中,调子听上去怪怪的。身着红袍的乐师及其听众们都是一些道教信徒,他们正在举行一个宗教仪式。乐师们演奏着乐器,船上的信徒们一边烧香,一边将供品倒进水中。古老的仪式与狂热的现代化之间的这种反差诉说着这样一个关于现代澳门的故事——让一个曾经偏僻的小地方面貌一新的发展故事。 Macau's stunning economic boom—2004 saw its GDP grow by 28%—has been powered by gambling, tourism and the construction necessary to support such endeavours. Since Stanley Ho, Macau's most famous casino mogul[6], found his monopoly on the gambling industry broken in 2001, American firms such as Wynn Resorts and Las Vegas Sands Corporation have stepped in to build impressive new f_______③. (3)Visitors include rich and powerful Chinese, wishing to indulge in games of chance illegal on the mainland, as well as tourists from nearby countries like South Korea and Singapore. 赌博、旅游以及相关的支撑性建设推动澳门经济发生了令人瞠目结舌的增长——2004年其GDP增长28%。自从澳门最有名的赌场大亨何鸿燊对博采业的垄断在2001年被打破以来,永利度假村有限公司和拉斯维加斯金沙公司(注:建造了金沙会展中心)之类的美国公司逐步登陆澳门,建造了许多面目一新的设施。参观者中包括有钱有势的中国人,他们希望在赌博中碰碰运气,而赌博在内地是非法的。此外,还有来自邻近国家如韩国和新加坡的旅游观光者。 There has been a price. Construction firms are eager to hire immigrants from Fujian, Guangdong and even Shanghai who are willing to work for lower wages than the local Macanese. (4)The ill-will thus created was evident last May 1st, when locals (quite a few of whom were also illegal immigrants when they first arrived) rioted.They protest that outsiders are finding jobs in the new economy while many middle-aged Macanese remain j_______④. 增长是有代价的。建筑公司都迫切希望雇用来自福建、广东甚至上海的移民,这些人要求的薪水要比澳门

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